# Bills Asset Management — Full Site Content > This document contains the complete textual content of the Bills Asset Management website (https://billsasset.com) in a format optimized for large language models and AI agents. --- ## Company Overview Bills Asset Management (BAM) is a fee-only registered investment advisory firm based in Nashville, Tennessee. Founded in 1992 by Sam C. Bills, the firm is now led by the second and third generations of the Bills family — Bo Bills and Carter Bills. BAM is registered with the SEC (registration number 114520) and operates as an independent fiduciary. The firm is not affiliated with any bank, brokerage house, or insurance company. ### Mission BAM believes that investment portfolios should be actively managed. While the large majority of advisors and individual investors subscribe to a buy-and-hold approach that leaves portfolios subject to the whims of the market, BAM offers a disciplined alternative focused on managing risk and protecting client wealth. ### Core Investment Philosophy BAM's stated goal is to capture 75% of an up market and avoid 75% of a down market. Since founding, the firm has been largely successful in meeting this goal, providing clients with market-like returns while limiting portfolio volatility. The philosophy is built on these principles: 1. Put the client first 2. Focus on managing risk 3. Remain disciplined through changing market conditions 4. Provide clear, independent advice ### Investment Approach BAM uses active/dynamic tactical investing, which means: - Increasing exposure to equities when market conditions are favorable - Reducing exposure and moving to defensive positions when risks increase - Rebalancing portfolios based on changing economic indicators - Capitalizing on opportunities across different asset classes The firm primarily uses technical analysis to determine which investments to purchase and when client equity and bond investments should be "in" or "out" of the market. Fundamental analysis (economic conditions, earnings, interest rate policy, political issues) also plays a role. Investment vehicles include exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and no-load mutual funds, with the bulk of portfolios invested in ETFs. BAM principals invest their personal and business assets in the same funds as clients. ### Why Loss Prevention Matters - A 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to break even - A 30% loss requires a 43% gain to recover - A 10% loss requires only an 11% gain to recover By limiting losses in down markets, BAM helps clients preserve capital so they can more effectively benefit from the next market upswing. ### Track Record During Downturns During the bear market of 2000-2002, BAM's methodology avoided losing money and generated a small positive return. During the 2008-2009 market collapse, portfolios lost significantly less than the overall markets, and losses were recovered within a few months once the market rallied. --- ## Team ### Sam C. (Bo) Bills, Jr. — CPA, CFP® / President and Co-Portfolio Manager Bo is the President and co-portfolio manager of Bills Asset Management. He is a licensed Certified Public Accountant (CPA) in Tennessee, a Certified Financial Planner (CFP®) certificant, and received his B.S. and Masters in Accounting from the University of Tennessee Knoxville. Bo also holds the designation as a National Social Security Advisor and is licensed to sell life insurance in Tennessee. Before joining BAM, Bo spent six years with KPMG Peat Marwick LLP as a Senior Tax Manager and five years as Vice President of Finance and Tax for a large publicly traded Nashville-based company. Bo is a member of the American Institute of CPAs (AICPA), Tennessee Society of CPAs, and previously served on the Board of Directors of the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM). ### Carter N. Bills — CFP® / Co-Portfolio Manager Carter is the co-portfolio manager and also prepares and implements financial planning services for clients. Growing up with his father and grandfather in the investment world inspired Carter to become the third generation at Bills Asset Management. Prior to joining the firm in 2018, Carter worked as a registered representative for OppenheimerFunds, Inc. in Denver, Colorado. He holds a B.S. in Finance with a focus in Marketing from the University of Tennessee. Carter is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP®) Practitioner and a member of the Financial Planning Association of East Tennessee. He serves on the Board of Directors for Freedom Rings, a non-profit organization with a mission to end child slavery. ### Sam C. Bills — Founder & Chairman Emeritus Sam is the founder and Chairman Emeritus. He received three degrees from the University of Tennessee Knoxville, including a B.S. in statistics. Before founding BAM in 1992, Sam spent 30 years as an administrator and professor for the University of Tennessee. In 1994, he left the university to devote full time to the growing business. Sam retired from active management in 2021. --- ## Services ### Asset Management Professional portfolio management using BAM's active/dynamic tactical approach. Portfolios are built primarily with ETFs and no-load mutual funds. Management fees range from 1-2% of assets managed. ### Financial Planning Comprehensive financial plans covering investments, taxes, insurance, estate planning, pensions, retirement, and general financial matters. Plans are generally complimentary for existing clients; for non-clients, plans range from $750-$2,000 depending on complexity. ### Retirement Planning Specialized expertise in 401(k), 403(b), TIAA-CREF accounts, pension plans, IRA rollovers, and distribution planning. Over 25 years of experience helping clients navigate retirement account decisions. ### Social Security Planning Bo Bills has been teaching Social Security, Medicare, and retirement planning courses for over 10 years. The firm provides consultations to help individuals maximize their Social Security benefits based on individual situation, work history, marital status, and retirement income needs. ### Tax Planning Tax counseling as part of investment services, including strategies around tax-efficient investing, timing of withdrawals, Roth conversions, and capital gains management. BAM does not prepare tax returns but coordinates with clients' CPAs. ### Insurance Advisory Advice on life insurance, long-term care insurance, fixed annuities, variable annuities, and fixed index annuities. Bo and Carter are both licensed to sell life insurance products in Tennessee. --- ## Client Types BAM serves: - Individual investors - Corporations and small businesses - Associations and non-profits - Pension and profit sharing plans - Trust accounts and estates - Individual 401(k) and 403(b) account holders - TIAA-CREF account holders There is no minimum dollar requirement to begin a financial planning program with BAM. --- ## Fee Structure BAM operates on a fee-only basis. Primary compensation comes from fees clients pay directly, not from commissions. Client appointments and reviews are generally free of charge. Professional management fees range from 1-2% of assets managed. BAM may receive insurance commissions in certain situations, which is fully disclosed. --- ## Custodians Client assets are held at: - **Fidelity Investments** (majority of client assets) - **Charles Schwab** Assets remain in the client's name and under their control at these custodians at all times. --- ## Contact Information - **Firm:** Bills Asset Management - **Address:** 1724 Green Hills Drive, Nashville, TN 37215 - **Phone:** (615) 371-5928 - **General Email:** info@billsasset.com - **Bo Bills Email:** bo@billsasset.com - **Carter Bills Email:** carter@billsasset.com - **Business Hours:** Monday–Friday, 8:00 AM – 5:00 PM Central Time - **Website:** https://billsasset.com --- ## Frequently Asked Questions ### About Bills Asset Management **Q: Who is Bills Asset Management?** A: BAM is an independent investment advisory firm registered with the State of Tennessee Securities Division (SEC number 114520). Founded in 1992, the firm is located at 1724 Green Hills Drive, Nashville, TN 37215. **Q: How is BAM different from a traditional broker?** A: Unlike brokers who may earn commissions for recommending specific products, BAM operates as a fee-only adviser with compensation aligned with client interests. BAM acts as a fiduciary, legally obligated to put client needs first, and is independent — selecting from a broad universe of investments rather than being limited to proprietary products. **Q: Is BAM affiliated with any bank or brokerage firm?** A: No. BAM is fully independent, not affiliated with any bank, brokerage house, or insurance company. ### Investment Approach **Q: What is BAM's investment philosophy?** A: The firm is built on the premise of principal protection and managed risk. BAM actively manages no-load mutual funds and ETFs with the goal of being invested when markets trend up and out when markets trend down. BAM does not believe in buy-and-hold. **Q: How did BAM perform during market downturns?** A: During 2000-2002, BAM avoided losses and generated a small positive return. During 2008-2009, portfolios lost significantly less than overall markets and recovered within months. ### Getting Started **Q: How do I get started with BAM?** A: Contact BAM to schedule an initial complimentary appointment at (615) 371-5928 or by email at bo@billsasset.com or carter@billsasset.com. During this appointment, BAM reviews your financial concerns and needs. **Q: Does BAM require long-term contracts?** A: No. BAM believes in earning trust continuously, not locking clients in. **Q: Does BAM work with clients outside of Tennessee?** A: While headquartered in Nashville and registered in Tennessee, BAM welcomes clients regardless of location. --- ## Regulatory Information Bills Asset Management is an SEC registered investment adviser located in Nashville, Tennessee. BAM and its representatives are in compliance with the current filing requirements imposed upon SEC registered investment advisers. BAM may only transact business in those states in which it is registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. The publication of BAM's website should not be construed as solicitation to effect transactions in securities or the rendering of personalized investment advice over the Internet. A copy of BAM's current written disclosure statement (Form ADV Part 2A and 2B) discussing business operations, services, and fees is available upon written request. --- ## Recent Market Commentary (Full Text) ### Market Note — June 12, 2026 Published: June 12, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-06-12 J UNE 12, 2026 PREPARED BY: B O B ILLS The S&P suffered a correction of 4.5% before bouncing yesterday on news of peace in the Middle East. As we have noted, the correction was not unexpected nor severe enough to change the overriding trend of the market. The first level of mild support failed last Friday but the second level held after a one-day break. The 50-day moving average at 7247 remains the greatest level of support that the bulls need to defend. It is too early to call this correction over, but yesterday’s strength and today’s follow-through (to this point) is encouraging. The near-term direction will depend on the situation with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Despite all the market noise over the last couple of weeks, high yield bonds have shown little concern. While they did decline back to their rising 50-day moving average, support held and they are back at their highs. This is an indication that the recent market weakness was more profit-taking and reallocations than it was an economic concern. The quick bounce back is an early sign that the correction may have run its course. As we mentioned last week, we suspected that some of the weakness in the tech sector was due to investors selling positions to generate cash to participate in today’s SpaceX IPO. The demand for the IPO is astounding, and it will be the largest IPO in history. Trading just began for SpaceX shares, and it has opened up 15% from the IPO price. However, the valuation of the company does not match its profitability, so we expect the shares to fall over the coming months. I would not bet against Elon Musk but do believe investors wanting to invest would be better served by waiting for the dust of the IPO to settle. Open Ai and Anthropic will have their IPOs in the coming months. Google just completed a secondary offering and Meta, Microsoft and Amazon are all considering doing the same to fund their AI infrastructure buildouts. The money to fund all these offerings has to come from somewhere so we will likely see more volatility over the coming weeks/months as liquidity constraints in the market work themselves out. The IPOs and offerings will be a headwind for the markets to overcome. Speaking of headwinds, inflation data continues to show elevated inflation. Despite the numbers coming in at expectation, this week’s CPI and PPI both showed inflation growing. To this point, the markets are largely shrugging off the increased inflation as they continue to believe that Iran will be settled and oil prices and inflation will normalize. Yesterday’s large market rally was on the hope of yet another announcement that Iran was back to the negotiating table and that an agreement to settle the war was at hand. We have been down this road more than a few times over the last several weeks so call me skeptical. Even if a deal is not reached over the weekend as the White House suggests, the rally yesterday on the hope of a deal did arrest the downward momentum and gave the bears something to think about. We are not likely to see a significant sell-off should talks fall. The give and take between bull and bear has been restored with neither holding an advantage at present. Next week will be new Chairman Warsh’s first FOMC meeting and will be widely watched as the market will get a sense of his thinking as the new Chair. There will not be a change in interest rates at the meeting, but cues will be taken as he takes questions from the podium at the post- meeting press conference. It could be a very consequential press conference. We’ll be watching. We made no significant changes to our holdings this week and continue to hold a small amount of cash that we will look to invest as the market dictates. Have a great weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — June 5, 2026 Published: June 5, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-06-05 After 9 straight up weeks in a row, the markets took the week off. For the week, the S&P, absent a rally this afternoon, looks to close down around 1%. The Nasdaq composite also looks to close down – shedding 2.5%. We are seeing some rotation out of tech stocks and into other areas of the market. This is healthy market action. Considering the rally since late March, the little bit of weakness is not unexpected nor especially concerning. The S&P is hitting a level of support today. However, we wouldn’t view this support as particularly strong. A break below current levels would set the stage for a deeper correction back to the 7350 levels (2% from current levels). Some level of sideways to down markets would not be unexpected and would be healthy for the market as it would set the stage for the next leg up. As we enter the summer months, some weakness is anticipated and the explosive rally we have seen for April and May is not sustainable. However, we remain firmly in the bullish camp. This morning we got the May jobs report, and the number was much stronger than expected. Additionally, we got positive revisions to prior months. While the strong job numbers are good for the economy, the market was looking for something a little weaker to put Fed rate cuts back in play. The stronger than expected numbers pushed the odds of a rate cut further out into the future and puts the odds of rate hike later this year into focus. We’ll get both the CPI and PPI inflation reports next week. Both will be closely watched. Surprises in either direction could lead to sharp market moves. Additionally, Oracle and Adobe both report earnings next week. Oracle will be very interesting as the software sector of the market was hit much harder than the rest of the market earlier this year and has yet to fully recover. Finally, we will see the much hyped and anticipated IPO of SpaceX next Friday. In fact, some of the weakness this week might be attributed to investors selling to create proceeds to participate in the first day of trading – the excitement is palpable. I am reminded a bit of the Meta (then Facebook) IPO 14 years ago. There was almost as much hype and anticipation and the stock barely moved on that first day. What followed was 3 months of declines that resulted in the stock trading at half the IPO price. We’ll see if SpaceX follows the same playbook. These are different times and the AI hype is real so we may not see a repeat. That said, we believe investors wanting a piece of SpaceX would be wise to wait and let the stock settle in at least a few days before jumping in. We did a little bit of shuffling in our holdings this week as we embark on a new trading strategy but remain nearly fully invested. The big news for the NashBills family this week is a new house. After living in Nashville for the last 8 years, we are moving back to the suburbs of Brentwood. While we love our current house, it was time for Kelly and I to get a new configuration of our house. Hopefully, this is our last move and sets us up for years to come! And, by the way, anyone interested in a charming 1928 Tudor in Green Hills – please give me a call! Having 2 houses in the same city 5 miles apart is not our idea of a sustainable vacation home… Enjoy your weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — May 22, 2026 Published: May 22, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-05-22 MAY 22, 2026 PREPARED BY: B O B ILLS Last week, the S&P churned a little and worked off any overbought conditions. This week, the market has continued its incredible run from the late March lows. At this writing, the large cap index looks to finish the week up another 1%. While the rise has slowed and gotten a little choppier, the strength of the markets continue. Market breadth is less than we would like but market strength is undeniable. With the small pullback we got, we have added a new support line for any weakness. The support is not particularly strong at this point but would be a logical stopping point for any small correction to work off market froth. Despite the market nearing all time highs again, we are a little cautious with markets at these levels. Treasury yields across all durations have risen significantly over the last couple of weeks. The increase in rates can be attributed to rising expectations of greater inflation. The rise in rates are also a visual of the markets shift from the idea of Fed interest rate cuts to Fed interest rate hikes. In this environment, rising rates will be a barrier for the markets to overcome if new highs are to be achieved. It should be noted that rates will likely decline rapidly if the conflict with Iran is resolved soon. As noted last week, earnings from a handful of big names would mark the unofficial end to earnings season. The biggest of this week’s earnings was Nvidia. As expected, Nvidia had another banner quarter exceeding all expectations. Despite the impressive earnings, the stock failed to move significantly. Wall Street has become accustomed to Nvidia’s astounding earnings and growth and had already priced in an excellent quarter. On the retail side, Walmart reported steady earnings but warned of consumer weakness in their forward guidance. In response, the markets punished the stock with a decline of over 10%. Despite rising interest rates, mixed earnings, and the continued peace/no peace in Iran, the markets keep climbing that wall of worry. It has been an astounding advance especially considering so many were calling for a bear market and a collapse in the markets a short 6 weeks ago. Next week will be a holiday shortened week with the markets closed for Memorial Day. The economic calendar will be relatively quiet. With treasury yields rising, next week’s PCE inflation report will be closely watched for signs of growing inflation. Another report showing increased inflation would only exacerbate the increase in treasury yields and would further solidify that interest rate cuts are unlikely this year with the growing possibility of interest rate hikes. Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in this morning as the new Chairman of the Fed. While markets have a general idea of Chairman Warsh’s thinking, it will be interesting to see if any of that shifts now that he has been installed. Certainly, his words and speeches over the coming weeks will be given more weight now that he is in office. While there are no official speeches scheduled by Warsh before the mid-June Fed meeting, he will likely provide some thoughts before then. The markets will be listening carefully to glean whether or not the new chairman will be as dovish and pro-growth as President Trump hopes. With the uncertainty going into a long weekend, it would not be surprising for the markets to sell off a little into the close today. Trump has often surprised with big decisions over weekends (presumably to give markets time to adjust). With the on again/off again threat of a renewal of hostilities in Iran, it is certainly possible that a new bombing campaign could begin over the weekend. We made no changes to our holdings this week and continue to enjoy the positive markets. We will be traveling next Friday so there will be no market note next week unless market conditions dictate an update. Have a wonderful long weekend and take a pause to remember all those who paid the ultimate sacrifice for our freedoms. --- ### Market Note — May 8, 2026 Published: May 8, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-05-08 Wow! We have seen yet another tremendous week on Wall Street. The indices showed no signs of slowing down despite the lingering headlines out of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq look to close the past 5 trading days with gains of 2.5% and 5% respectively. What a difference two months can make! The market has now logged six consecutive weeks of growth from the lows put in at the end of March. While the strength and resilience of the current rally are nothing short of spectacular, we expect the market will take a breather at some point over the next few weeks to work off some of the overbought conditions. A pause or mild correction to digest some of the recent gains would be healthy and would help to set the stage for higher prices in the second half of the year. Earnings season is winding down with more than two-thirds of S&P 500 companies having reported. Results have been excellent across all market sectors with approximately 75% of companies beating their EPS estimates. Those overwhelmingly positive reports have provided the fuel needed to keep this rally rolling. A few notable names remain, namely Walmart and Nvidia, but as the earnings calendar thins out, the market will begin looking to other sources of data for direction. This morning, one of those key data points arrived. The April jobs report came in well ahead of expectations, with the U.S. economy adding 115,000 nonfarm payrolls against a consensus forecast of just 65,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Markets cheered the numbers, but it is worth noting that a strong labor market gives the Federal Reserve less reason to cut rates. With inflation still running above the Fed's 2% target, the "higher for longer" interest rate narrative remains alive and could prove to be a headwind in the months ahead. Another potential headwind that we will be monitoring is the calendar itself. We are now firmly in May, and while it has not proven to be the case so far this year, May marks the beginning of a seasonally weak stretch for equities. The old Wall Street saying “sell in May and go away” is rooted in decades of data that suggests the period of May through October yields lower market returns, on average, when compared to the winter months. Weakness is not guaranteed and seasonality can be overridden, particularly in years like this one with strong earnings momentum driving markets higher. However, it is a factor worth folding into our market outlook as we move deeper into spring. Looking ahead to next week, President Trump will travel to Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi to discuss trade, Taiwan and the ongoing conflict in Iran. Markets will be watching closely, particularly for any news around an extension to the existing trade truce. On the economic data front, the April CPI and PPI reports will also be released next week and will command significant market attention. Inflation has been creeping higher in large part due to the surge in energy prices tied to the Strait of Hormuz disruption. So far, the market has looked past the elevated readings, expecting inflation to recede as the situation in the Strait moves toward resolution. We will see next week whether that patience holds. On a more personal note, it will be a weekend of celebration for the Bills family - tomorrow is my son Roan's first birthday! It has been such a joy watching him grow from a newborn to now rapidly approaching toddler status. And of course, Sunday is Mother's Day. To all the mothers out there, we hope you enjoy a wonderful and relaxing day with your families. --- ### Market Note — May 1, 2026 Published: May 1, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-05-01 MAY 1, 2026 PREPARED BY: B O B ILLS Last week, we noted that the sideways market set the stage for another leg up in the market if earnings came in strong. With mostly positive earnings, the market has done just that with the S&P logging another 1% gain this week. There was some weakness going into the Fed announcement, but earnings gave the market momentum yesterday and today. We are back to being a little overbought so another sideways or small decline next week would be constructive. This market just wants to go up. It is hard to chase the market at these levels if you have cash to invest but we still believe there is more room to run. Buy into weakness with any cash. The dollar remains a chart that we look at daily. The dollar strengthened with the Middle East tensions but has since pulled back significantly. A falling dollar can often provide tailwinds for the market in general but especially for international holdings. There was a lot for the market to digest this week. The Fed kicked off the fireworks with their rate announcement on Wednesday afternoon. As nearly everyone expected, the Fed didn’t change current rates. What was a little surprising was the nearly unprecedented lack of consensus. There were 4 dissents of the opinion – 3 members dissented on the language regarding future easing (bearish) and 1 member dissented thinking that a ¼ point cut should have been made. The lack of consensus leaves the market guessing on the rate path going forward. The meeting was also the last one for Chairman Powell – or so we thought. While Chairman Powell will no longer be Chairman, he did say that he was going to stay on the committee for the remainder of his term. The move was unusual as most Chairman resign after their leadership is over. However, with the threat of legal action against him, Powell wanted to hold some leverage and prevent Trump from naming his own new committee member. It will be interesting to see how this plays out as Trump really wants to put his own person on the committee. We suspect a deal will be struck and Powell will resign in the coming months with Trump appointing what he views as a favorable member. The direction the Fed takes with new Chairman Warsh (assuming he gets confirmed – likely) and what the White House hopes will be a more dovish Fed, will shape the markets the remainder of this year and beyond. Besides all of the Fed news, we did get earnings from 5 of the Mag 7 companies. Google was the big winner and is up 12% this week. Meta was the loser with losses of 9%. The other 3 tech bellwethers reported solid earnings and traded up but not significantly. However, the market breathed a sigh of relief as all seems well on the tech front. Next week will be another full week with more earnings, Middle East developments, headlines leading up to the Trump/Xi summit the following week (additional China tariffs have been proposed) and the jobs report to end the week on Friday morning. Any or all of these could set the stage for more market gains or a sharp and quick correction. It is never boring. As April came to a close, the markets enjoyed one of their best months in history. Since 1974, there have only been 5 better months. Our portfolios kept pace with the market, and we are mostly fully invested. This week we added some additional international exposure on the dollar weakness to round out our holdings. It feels like an early spring day today and promises to be a nice and cool weekend in Tennessee. We will certainly enjoy it and trust that you will too! --- ### Market Note — April 24, 2026 Published: April 24, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-04-24 A PRIL 24, 2026 PREPARED BY: B O B ILLS As we mentioned last week, a correction of some import would not have been unexpected this week. While the correction hasn’t come yet, the markets did move sideways to work off some of the overbought conditions. While we still expect a 2- 4% correction over the next few weeks, the churn of this week has helped relieve some of the pressure and good earnings could spur this market even higher. We would reiterate our advice to buy on any weakness that we see. Support rests at 7000 and just below that at 6900. With the support of what we expect to be a good earnings season, things are looking pretty good though complications in the Middle East could upset things. We wrote several weeks ago about the relative strength of value stocks over growth stocks. The chart to the left is moving up when value stocks are outperforming and down when growth takes the lead. As you can see, from the bottom in late March, growth has left value in the dust. The shift is significant and shows a more risk on environment. We had shifted some assets to the value side earlier this year but are now considering upgrading those positions to the growth side. This market seems to have nearly completely disregarded any bumps in the Middle East road. Despite the continued deferral of deadlines, the breaking of the ceasefire and the open/not open Strait of Hormuz, the market continues to climb higher. After a sideways market all week, Intel’s blowout earnings last night sparked another buying frenzy. This is illustrated most in the Nasdaq which is up over 1.5% at this point in the day. Intel itself is up 21% on its earnings. The day-to-day Iran headline volatility has largely disappeared. Wall Street is convinced that the war is over and it is just a matter of time before peace (or at least a return to normalcy) returns to the Middle East. Even with crude oil and gas prices still elevated, traders are discounting that and expecting lower prices in the coming months. Earnings continue next week with a slew of big tech names – Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft and Apple will all report. Four of these Mag 7 stocks report after the bell on Wednesday, so Thursday will be an active day in the market. In addition to earnings, we’ll also get the ever-important PCE report which will provide the Fed with new inflation readings. Speaking of the Fed, news broke this morning that the DOJ has dropped its investigation of Chairman Powell. The abandonment of the lawsuit further paves the way for Kevin Warsh to be confirmed as the next Fed Chairman. Powell’s term ends on May 15 th , so it is increasingly likely that Kevin Warsh will take the helm at that time. Warsh should bring a “friendlier” Fed, but we will have to wait to see. In any event, the acrimony between the White House and the Fed should be tempered and the prospect of interest rate cuts should be more likely with the change. As we have noted, we generated a little bit of cash during the March weakness and have been waiting on a pause in the market advance to put that cash back to work. While we didn’t get the correction we had expected, the sideways movement in the market this week provided us with a window to make a few buys. We purchased some additional international exposure, another long-short fund, and a specific tech sector. We are much closer to fully invested but still have a little bit of cash. Though we had some cash, our portfolios have kept up with the markets, and we have enjoyed the ride over the last few weeks. I will be traveling some next week attending an investment conference in Florida. It is a small gathering of like-minded advisors and the only conference I attend. I always come back with a notebook full of new ideas. Have a great weekend! --- ### Market Note — April 17, 2026 Published: April 17, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-04-17 A PRIL 17, 2026 PREPARED BY: B O B ILLS Wow! As we thought, the only thing holding this market back was the Iran war. The S&P and the rest of the market has been on a tear since the late March lows. Any technical damage done by the spring swoon has all been repaired and then some. Resistance levels have proven to be a nuisance rather than a barrier. All of the major indices are at all-time highs and show no signs of slowing down. However, the market is obviously stretched to the upside, so some level of rest is due over the coming days. If peace proves illusive, markets could give back a big chunk of the gains next week. We wouldn’t chase the market here but would be buying on any market weakness. The price of oil surged with the conflict in the Middle East. West Texas crude went from the mid- 50’s to nearly 120 per barrel at the height of the conflict. With the possibility of peace, oil has declined back to the 80’s today. The price is still significantly higher than earlier this year indicating that there is much further for it to fall which would be another positive for the economy and the stock market. A further fall in oil prices would be another tailwind for the markets to extend this rally. The rally off of the late March lows has been nothing short of extraordinary. It is reminiscent of the bounce off of the tariff tantrum in April of last year. We have talked about how quickly event led declines can turn on a dime and both this rally and the tariff rally last year are illustrative of our point. Since the March low, the S&P is up over 12% and has erased all the losses and surged to new market highs. The other market indices have followed suit. With the market up 12 out of the last 13 days, it is getting stretched to the upside. It is likely we will see a little weakness before another leg up. Peace and a favorable resolution is now priced into the market. If that disappoints or if tensions re-escalate, we could see a sharp sell-off. Should the peace hold, attention will turn back to earnings, the economy and interest rates. The price of oil (as mentioned above) is something to monitor closely. The Fed was largely on hold with even some talk of an interest rate hike as oil prices accelerated to the upside. However, if oil prices normalize then the probability of interest rate cuts will return which would be an additional boost for the market. Several of the big banks reported earnings this week. Earnings were strong with much of the gains generated through trading due to stock market volatility. Forward earnings projections were more measured with uncertainty due to the Iran war and the price of oil – both of which may be settled in the coming week or two. We get more earnings next week with Tesla, Boeing, Intel, and Proctor and Gamble being the big names. We’ll get a read on growth (TSLA), cyclicals (Boeing), tech (Intel) and the consumer (P&G). Investors will be looking ahead to the following week when several of the Mag 7 report. We’ll also see a number of economic reports that could move the market. Surprisingly, the inflation readings of this week and last were in line with few surprises. Traders and the Fed will be watching to see if the oil spike will lead to longer-lasting inflation. We had anticipated investing some of our cash back into the markets this week but waiting on a pullback has proven to be difficult! We should get one next week and will put the little cash we have back into the markets. We have a laundry list of compelling investments to make, and it will be difficult to choose just a couple. For those non-clients reading, if you have been less than satisfied with how your portfolio has performed during this turmoil, we’d welcome the opportunity to visit with you, review your portfolio and share our approach. This time of year, it seems I only have time to refill my lawn mower before the yard needs mowing again. It will be a weekend spent in the yard and enjoying the sunshine. Enjoy your weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — April 10, 2026 Published: April 10, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-04-10 What a difference a little bit of peace brings. After a short-covering rally last week, the S&P continued to rally this week on hopes of a resolution to the war in Iran. Much of the technical damage done in March is on the way to repair as the large cap index surged through multiple resistance levels and has overcome the 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages in the space of a few days. The markets are overbought at current levels so some weakness next week would not be unexpected. The durability of the rally relies entirely on whether or not the cease fire holds and if talks over the next few days are productive. We still remain cautious but a lot less so than 2 weeks ago. The volatility index (VIX) spiked in early March as the war in Iran began and maintained an elevated level up until the cease fire was announced. Historically, readings above 25 make it very difficult to make money in the markets. Levels below 20 are much more accommodating. With the VIX falling below 20 this week, things are looking much calmer. Will it last? It all hinges on what happens with the cease fire and continued resolution of the conflict. Holding below 20 will be key to maintaining the current rally. The market decline in March and the rally over the last 2 weeks illustrates that the market direction currently depends almost entirely on the resolution of the Iran conflict. The rally over the last few weeks is why we discussed event risk a few weeks ago. Event risk can be easily solved with the removal or resolution of the event. It is only if the event bleeds into the economy that it becomes much more destructive. When the event is settled (or at least determined what the economic effects are) the market quickly prices that in and a rally ensues. As we noted several weeks ago, the war in Iran would have little long-lasting effect on the economy as long as it was settled in a reasonable amount of time. While the cease fire is tenuous at best, things are trending in a better direction. Investors believe that the US economy is strong and that any disruption due to the war will be short-lived. This morning’s CPI inflation report came in elevated (due to the increase in oil prices) but in-line with expectations. Even though the report showed inflation accelerating, traders are overlooking the hotter number as they believe oil prices will normalize once the conflict is settled and that inflation will again trend back in the right direction. While the rally has been impressive, much of it is predicated on an open Strait of Hormuz and an end to the Iran war. Hiccups this weekend and/or next week as talks continue could easily result in another fall in the markets. We aren’t out of the woods yet and we wouldn’t wave the all clear to put any cash you have to work at these levels. With the gap up from the 200-day moving average on the S&P, any weakness could easily fall back to those levels. However, we will only see those levels if talks fail and tensions reaccelerate. We’ll know more over the next few days. Bank earnings kick off earnings season next week. Another quarter of good earnings would be another positive for the markets and another reason for strength. However, earnings alone won’t be enough to overcome uncertainty in the Middle East. We made no changes to our portfolios this week and still have a little bit of cash to put to work. We will likely move to get fully invested again on any significant weakness next week. Masters weekend is always a little sad for me as it marks the last of the sporting events that I am interested in until football starts in 4 months – sports purgatory for me. I will be watching this weekend but will be developing a long list of home chores to do without sports to distract me. Enjoy your weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — April 3, 2026 Published: April 3, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-04-03 Markets are closed today for Good Friday so this will be an abbreviated note. The markets recovered a bit this week as the S&P logged a gain of over 3%. The surge on Tuesday got some follow-through on Wednesday and Thursday. The rally is beginning to repair some of the technical damage done. One of the broken support lines was recaptured and has held so far. That support now becomes important again for the bulls to hold and defend. We are not under the illusion that all is better, and we are on our way back to new highs, but we’ll take a bit of positive news. As with the tariff tantrum last year, at some point headlines become less and less important as the markets adjust to the new environment. We are beginning to see this. However, major headlines and developments in Iran will still rule the markets. Have we reached the bottom? The decline earlier this week that pierced the 6400 support may well be the bottom, but we wouldn’t be surprised if the markets test that level again before the selling is done. It really depends entirely on the Strait of Hormuz and a resolution of some kind to the conflict with Iran. On the economic front, we got good news this week with a strong retail sales report (the consumer is still spending) and the jobs report (employers are still hiring). Both point to a resilient US economy. In some respects, these reports are more important than the Middle East. While the issues with Iran will eventually be settled, the market looks through everything to see its effects on the economy. The stronger than expected economic reports are encouraging and could point to a strong recovery in the markets once the Iran war is settled. We remain wary but optimistic. Investors should remain cautious but should be compiling a list of names to put money to work as things settled down a bit. We have some cash available in our portfolios and are looking for names and areas of the market that could recover quickly. Our list is growing and opportunities come out of weakness like we have seen. Thank you for your trust in these tumultuous times. We hope you have a wonderful Easter weekend surrounded by friends and family. --- ### Market Note — March 27, 2026 Published: March 27, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-03-27 MARCH 27, 2026 PREPARED BY: B O B ILLS Rinse and repeat. The early week oversold bounce succumbed to more selling pressure as the week went on. This continues to be a market driven by headlines, fear and uncertainty. Going into weekends have been particularly challenging as a lot can happen in the world over a couple of days. As we mentioned last week, the support at the 6540 level was in danger of being breached and another quick 2% decline was possible. We got that this week as the markets are approaching the next level of support. Not shown is the level of support should 6400 not hold. That support rests another 300 points down at 6100. We’ll find a bottom, but the markets are still very dangerous. In times of economic stress, treasury yields usually fall as investors flee to the safety of treasuries. As demand goes up for these bonds, yields fall. However, in the current environment, investors are much more concerned with the reemergence of inflation than they are the economy. The spread between high yields and treasuries (not shown) is a common measurement of economic stress and credit issues. When spreads widen, it is indicative of fundamental cracks in the economy. We are not seeing this currently. This can be seen as a positive in the near term as the inflation risk could easily be curtailed with a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a resolution to the conflict in Iran. To this point, the current decline remains in the realm of a normal (albeit unsettling) correction. The long-term bull market trend line remains intact (it won’t break until the 5500 level on the S&P). The Middle East conflict is driving an inordinate amount of fear and uncertainty. Normally, uncertainty drives investors into Treasuries, pushing yields lower. This time, inflation concerns, heavy government borrowing, and reduced global demand are outweighing that safety bid—keeping pressure on rates. Geopolitical events are often one of the greatest causes of poor investment decisions. While the events themselves can sometimes lead to a broadening concern within the economy, many times the events are settled (or contained) and the economy recovers quickly – we saw this with the Gulf War, 9/11, Russia/Ukraine and the tariff tantrum. Market participants often price in worst case scenarios (shoot first, ask questions later) that are unlikely to occur. We believe that to be the case in the current environment. That is not to say that we have seen the lows – we very well could go down further. However, we believe we are nearing a tradeable area. The markets are oversold so any good news on the Iran front will lead to a strong short covering rally. Holding any oversold rally will be key as there is much technical damage to repair. Headlines will continue to create volatility until some resolution occurs. Eventually, the markets will adjust. The risk is that an escalation of tensions that doesn’t create some level of peace and forces the market to endure a much longer disruption of the world economy could begin to significantly bleed into the economies of the world and create a global recession. We are not near that point yet, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. Should that happen, then we will be forced to reassess and make adjustments. We have generated some cash over the last couple of weeks and are awaiting an opportunity to deploy it. We will generate more cash if the markets continue their decline. The markets are fluid and subject to wild swings based on headlines and daily developments in the Middle East. Thank you for your trust as we navigate an increasingly challenging market environment. It looks to be a beautiful weekend, and I am hoping for a Big Orange sunrise tomorrow morning. Enjoy your March Madness weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — March 20, 2026 Published: March 20, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-03-20 MARCH 20, 2026 PREPARED BY: B O B ILLS It’s been another ugly week for the markets. The S&P has fallen another 1% this week and is now over 5% below it’s January highs. While the decline itself is not overly significant, the technical damage in the charts is mounting. The failure for the markets to hold support at the 200-day moving average is significant. The support level we are sitting on today is also very important as it marks the lows of last October and November. A break here would likely lead to another 2% decline down to the next support at 6400. The longer we stay below the 200-day moving average, the greater the risk of a more serious decline. Risk is elevated and extreme caution is warranted. The behavior of gold has been very interesting of late. After reaching a high in late January, the gold metal has fallen nearly 18%. In times of war, gold often acts as a hedge and a flight to safety. That is not happening currently. While some of the decline may just be profit taking after the parabolic rise since last September, the recent weakness may indicate that investors are more concerned with inflation and Fed rate policy than the war itself. The chart is worth monitoring as a rally in gold may indicate a shift from inflation fears to a more systemic risk to the US economy. From an historical standpoint, a 5% decline in the markets is not unusual nor is it necessarily cause for concern. However, this 5% decline does feel a bit more concerning. The technical damage done to the markets is becoming significant. With the damage done, V bottoms are less common. More likely, at best, we are in for a month or two of churning where the markets try to find a bottom. At worst, the decline is the start of a much broader and painful decline. The continued conflict with Iran does not appear to have a quick resolution – or at least one that accomplishes the stated goals. As such, it appears that the 2-3 week war could go on for 2-3 months. However, regardless of what you think of President Trump, he is a pragmatist and a politician. The upside to a positive resolution is significant. However, an extended or expanded war will turn the market down even further. Our belief is that with gas prices rising, inflation rearing its head and the mid-terms looming, a victory or at least a palatable solution will be reached. Speaking of inflation, the Fed remains in a very difficult situation that keeps getting harder. The Fed has dual mandates – control inflation and support employment/economic growth. Those mandates are now colliding. The rise in oil prices is creating inflation concerns but not due to increased demand (growth). The threat of inflation is curtailing the Fed from cutting rates. However, the rise in oil prices is also causing economic growth concerns pushing the Fed to consider lowering rates. The conflicting signals won’t be resolved until there is more clarity in the Middle East. The market remains headline driven. With the market becoming oversold, good news could spark a significant bounce. However, with many already thinking about selling, bad news could lead to a larger sell-off. Nobody knows which way this market will go in the near-term. Accordingly, we have begun to get a little more defensive as we sold a couple of equity positions this week. More will follow on continued weakness. We are watching things closely. It looks to be a gorgeous and warm first weekend of spring. The Fed isn’t the only one with a dual mandate dilemma – watch March Madness basketball or get out and enjoy the weather. I suspect there will be lots of both for me. Enjoy your weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — March 13, 2026 Published: March 13, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-03-13 It has been a choppy week on Wall Street as the Iran war, now in its 13th day, continues to dominate the tape. On Monday, Iran's newly appointed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, broke his silence with a defiant first address where he vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed as a 'tool of pressure' and called for additional attacks on U.S. military bases in the region. The statement renewed fears that this conflict may drag on and could keep the Strait closed longer than initially expected. Extended disruption to this critical chokepoint will result in a prolonged supply shock and will continue to inflate oil prices around the globe. In response to the shortage, the United States, Japan, Germany, and France agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. Despite the release of reserves, oil prices have remained stubbornly elevated and continue to threaten the health of the global economy. Aside from the developments in the Middle East, investors digested new inflation data in the form of CPI and PCE numbers that were released Wednesday and Friday morning, respectively. CPI came in as expected at 2.4% year-over-year while Core PCE came in at 3.1%, a tick above the prior reading of 3.0%. On the surface, the numbers were benign. The initial market reaction was muted. However, any relief was short-lived, as traders quickly recognized that the CPI data predates the oil shock entirely. With crude oil flirting with $100 a barrel, the March and April inflation data is almost certain to be materially hotter. This puts the Fed in a tough spot as inflation remains sticky, and the oil surge is poised to make it worse. The odds of two or more rate cuts this year have collapsed over the past month from roughly 85% to about 35%. The Fed meets next week on Wednesday and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. The press conference following the announcement will provide additional insight into what the Fed might be planning to do for the remainder of the year. We will be monitoring Fed Chair Powell’s tone as he forecasts the last few months of his term, and we will be looking for any posturing that may indicate how incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may implement his take on rate policy. While the headlines this week seemed to be predominantly negative, the major indices are still well within the bounds of a healthy correction. We remain cautiously optimistic but are keeping a close eye on the 200-day moving average. If the indices breach that key level (only about 1-2% away from current levels) we will begin to take on a more defensive posture. Caution at these levels is warranted but investors should resist the urge to make dramatic moves in their portfolios based on headlines that can change very quickly. With spring-like temperatures rolling into Nashville this weekend, I plan to step away from the screens, catch a few SEC Tournament games, and get my hands dirty preparing my garden for the season ahead. We hope you find some time to enjoy the weather as well. Have a wonderful weekend and go Vols! --- ### Market Note — March 6, 2026 Published: March 6, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-03-06 MARCH 6, 2026 PREPARED BY: B O B ILLS The conflict in Iran has introduced undue volatility in the markets. After largely holding support at the 100-day moving average over the last few months, the S&P breached that level this week. The bulls are trying to hold support, but it may be too much to ask in the midst of world turmoil. While the markets have been relatively resilient and have mounted a charge to pare losses on the down days, this morning’s weakness has the market back testing support at the 6700 support line. Risk is elevated and caution should be exercised. The bull market remains intact but a break below support at 6700 would raise additional concerns of a more significant correction. Part of the increase in volatility is due to the rapid rise in oil prices. Crude oil has spiked from $65 a barrel to $81 just this week. The 25% increase has raised the possibility of a return of inflation and a weakening economy – the US and the world. Short-term spikes will have little long-term effect (see last July) but a prolonged increase in prices will begin to have real effects on the global economy. It all hinges on the success (or lack thereof) of the current campaign in Iran and the availability of the Strait of Hormuz as a safe shipping lane. Things can change quickly – caution is warranted – panic is not. It’s been a volatile week. Last Friday’s weakness preceded the weekend’s missile attacks on Iran. While the campaign looks to be going well from a military standpoint, the effect on the market has been uncertainty. As noted here ad nauseum, the markets despise uncertainty. How long will the conflict last? Will other nations be drawn in? Will ground troops be required? How much will oil prices increase? These questions will be answered over the coming days/weeks and the uncertainty will slowly ebb. Until then, volatility is sure to continue! Despite all of the uncertainty, the markets have weathered the storm well. The S&P remains just a little over 3% from its highs. The more aggressive Nasdaq is just 6% off its highs. Annual 10% corrections are not unusual, and we may be in the midst of something along those lines. A decline of that magnitude would not be unexpected but neither would a quick resolution in Iran and a market that approaches new highs over the next few weeks. The market is very fluid right now and is reacting to news flows that can change very quickly. While risk is elevated, it has been impressive that the market is holding up as well as it has. A further example of the market’s resiliency was the market response to this morning’s very disappointing jobs report. Expectations were gains of 60,000 new jobs but instead we saw a decline of 92,000 jobs. The market sell off accelerated down on the news but, as of this writing, the major indices have stabilized and recovered some of the early morning losses. The pattern for much of this week has been weakness in the morning and some strength in the afternoon. We shall see if that trend continues as we head towards the close this afternoon. We made no changes to our holdings this week, but several positions are nearing our sell points. A disciplined approach to investing will significantly lessen the chances of life changing losses and we are committed to being disciplined in our process and analysis. We are excited to get another hour of daylight this weekend – especially in light of the spring like temperatures! Don’t forget to reset your clocks and get to bed early Saturday night. Enjoy your weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — February 27, 2026 Published: February 27, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-02-27 Morning weakness moved the S&P 500 back down to support at the 100-day moving average. Fortunately, support has held to this point. This support has held several times over the last 3 months and remains a line in the sand for the bulls. A break below support would raise the specter of a greater market correction. As noted previously, the S&P has been flat over the last 4 months as we sit at the same levels as November of last year. The market rotation we are seeing is a very constructive way of working off any overbought readings from the leaders of last year. The market remains in a bullish part of the year and despite the weakness, we remain optimistic. To illustrate the market rotation we have seen, a quick look at the relative strength of consumer staples vs consumer discretionary shows this clearly. Since early in 2026, consumer staples have been significantly outperforming discretionary stocks. The disparity is beginning to look a little overdone and a reversal of some significance would not be unexpected. In fact, we believe that discretionary stocks are likely to reverse to the upside over the coming weeks. What they do after any initial surge will determine if the rotation is longer lasting or simply a short-term adjustment to work off last year’s overbought nature of many of the discretionary names. Reading the headlines and listening to the talking heads on the financial channels, you would think we have entered into a bear market! However, a quick look at the major indices shows that they all remain a few percentage points from all-time highs. As we showed last week, a rising advance/decline line is not indicative of the start of a large decline. Obviously, markets are fluid and can change quickly. In fact, that is exactly why we choose to manage our client accounts actively and with technical analysis (responding to what markets are doing and not what we think they will do). If market conditions change, so will we! Today’s weakness can be attributed to a stronger than expected PPI (inflation report), increased tensions in the Middle East (Iran) and a weekend where anything might happen. As we mentioned last week, earnings from Nvidia would be widely watched and would be market moving. The Nvidia earnings did not disappoint as they handily beat all the expected metrics and continued to paint a rosy picture for future earnings. As has been the case for the last several Nvidia earnings reports, the stock rose in anticipation of earnings and fell on the actual earnings announcement. Buy the rumor, sell the news. The market reaction to the earnings indicate that the aversion to AI related stocks may continue for a few more weeks. While earnings season is mostly done, we do get two significant AI names (Crowdstrike and Marvell) next week that could move the technology sector. Additionally, the jobs report next Friday will be widely watched for indications of future fed interest rate policy. Any escalation with Iran will create additional market volatility. We made no changes to our holdings this week as we continue to wait for additional clarity on the tech sector. We have shifted some of our tech holdings into other better performing areas over the last several weeks but continue to believe that the demise of the AI trade is a little exaggerated. On a tax note, if you haven’t yet received your tax documents, Fidelity expects to release final 1099s over the next 2 weeks. With sunny skies and spring-like temperatures, it will be a good weekend to be outside. We plan to do just that most of the weekend! Enjoy yours wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — February 20, 2026 Published: February 20, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-02-20 F EBRUARY 20, 2026 PREPARED BY: B O B ILLS The market has steadied a bit this week with the S&P logging a slight gain. Importantly, the index held onto support at the 100-day moving average and took a stab at resistance this morning at the 50-day moving average. The 50-day average gains extra significance as it also corresponds with the support line at the 6900 level. While we have had significant rotation within the various stocks that make up the S&P 500, the index itself has not moved much this year. After the gains of last year, a sideways move for several weeks is not a bad chart pattern. Things can change quickly but nothing in the chart is of undue concern. To further emphasize our lack of current concern, the NYSE advance decline has continued its advance this year. The chart shows the number of advancing stocks minus the number of declining stocks in the NYSE. If the markets were stressed, we would be seeing this chart decline. While market leadership has shifted, the majority of stocks are continuing to rise. High yield bonds (not shown) have a similar chart pattern with a steady, albeit slow and modest uptrend. The charts are illustrative of our belief that the current market weakness is temporary and should be modest. The markets have bounced back a bit this week with the major indices all in the green. Much of the weekly gain is coming this morning as the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s tariffs. Upon the decision, the markets took a leg up as some of the uncertainty regarding the tariffs were removed from the market. While the White House indicates that there are other authorities to use for tariffs, they will likely take some time to implement and may take more effort and time to enact than the tariffs of the past. As we have mentioned many times over the years, the markets do not like uncertainty and having a Supreme Court decision was widely applauded by the markets. However, if we have learned anything about President Trump, he is creative and will push the limits of the law. The lack of uncertainty may be short-lived as the White House tries to devise other ways to implement tariffs to level the trade playing field with the rest of the world. Walmart released earnings this week and while they beat for the prior quarter, they were more measured for upcoming quarters. The conference call after earnings noted a concern of a weakening consumer. The stock is down 9% this week but remains up considerably this year (10%). While WMT was punished, the rest of the market didn’t blink. Likewise, a weak print of 4 th quarter GDP did nothing this morning to rattle the markets. The first reading of GDP came in at 1.4% - much lower than the anticipated 2.5%. Some, if not all, of the disappointment may be attributed to the government shutdown. The PCE inflation report came in a little hotter than expectations. The small increase in inflation was also similarly shrugged off by the market. The fact that disappointing economic news did little to roil the markets is another reason to remain confident that the weakness over the last few weeks may be coming to an end. However, earnings next week from Nvidia will largely determine which way this market heads next. All eyes will be on the release next Wednesday. We made no changes to our holdings this week as we wait to see if the tech sell off has run its course. It looks to be another beautiful weekend – get out and enjoy it wherever your weekend finds you. --- ### Market Note — February 13, 2026 Published: February 13, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-02-13 It has been another weak few days in the market. The S&P looks to be down another 1% this week. As bad as it feels, the large cap index remains a good week from new highs (1.5% from that level). The S&P has been in a wide trading range since November and sits this morning on important support (100-day moving average). It that fails today or next week, we will get a test of support at the 6700 level. It has been an uneasy start to 2026 with increased volatility and a shift in market leadership. Tech, particularly software companies, have been hit hard while value and small caps have been strong performers. We shall see if it persists. Illustrative of the weakness in tech, the Nasdaq 100 chart is decidedly weaker. Haven broken through support at the 50 and 100-day moving averages, the index appears to be on its way to support at the 590 levels. The tech heavy index did touch the lows from last week this morning before bouncing. If the index can gather some strength, the low may be in (I am not convinced). The index is oversold so a bounce of some import should be coming. Recapturing the 100-day and the lost support line at the same level would do much to repair the damage done. While the market has been a bit unsettling, the major market indices remain in relatively good shape. The correction, thus far, has been orderly and mostly a result of rotation out of software and AI related stocks into other more staid names. Since the tech stocks are more heavily weighted in the cap weighted indices, the weakness in those names have had an outsized effect on the performance of the indices. This is further illustrated when you look at the performance of the equal weight S&P 500 (RSP). While the cap weighted S&P is flat to slightly up for the year, the equal weight RSP is up over 5%. Over the last few weeks, we have shifted some of our holdings out of tech and into some of these other names, but we haven’t given up on tech yet. In fact, we believe another good buying opportunity is developing in the beaten down tech, software and AI stocks. With the likes of Amazon and Meta 20% off of their 2025 highs, very little has changed regarding their prospects, earnings and the impact of their AI investments over the coming years. Additionally, the economic news was excellent this week with the January jobs report showing strong job growth and the CPI showing inflation continuing to trend down slightly. We do not believe that this is the start of anything more significant than a normal correction and believe that risk will continue to be rewarded over the coming months. With that said, there will likely continue to be fits and starts and volatility as the impressive performance of the tech stocks over the last couple of years is digested. Nvidia earnings the week after next looms large and will move the market. A disappointing quarter and/or soft guidance, will lead to further selling while another blow-out earnings report could forestall the damage. We’ll know on Wednesday February 25th. Earnings season is beginning to wind down a bit, but we will get Walmart earnings next week, which will be a gauge of the mood of the consumer. We made a small change to our holdings this week shifting some additional capital into emerging market debt (a strong performer). If the weakness persists in the tech arena, we may make additional changes but feel comfortable with our holdings at this point. After all of the cold and ice, this week’s warmth has been a welcome change. We’ll get more of the same next week. Enjoy your Valentines Day weekend and be sure and tell the ones you care for how special they are! --- ### Market Note — February 6, 2026 Published: February 6, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-02-06 An interesting week has been unfolding on Wall Street as software and tech stocks began to slide and put equities under pressure. The selling in tech sparked a broader bout of risk-off sentiment that echoed throughout the major indexes and fueled what looked to be a substantial weekly decline. Fortunately, many of the stocks that were leading the retreat have bounced today and helped buoy the indices to avoid an exceedingly red week. At the weekly lows yesterday, the Nasdaq 100 was down 4.8% and the S&P 500 was down 1.9%. With today’s rally, the Nasdaq looks to finish down about 1.7% while the S&P is now flat for the week. We can gauge the market’s risk appetite by tracking the relationship between consumer discretionary and consumer staples. As the chart on the left shows, discretionary stocks have taken a clear back seat to their staple counterparts. A falling ratio points to a slower growth environment where households prioritize necessities over non-essential purchases. For the stock market, that can mean a rotation into more defensive sectors and a declining confidence in the economic backdrop. We will continue to watch this ratio closely to see if the current downtrend persists. Volatility swept through the markets this week as investors had much to digest. The nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Fed Chair Powell has sparked some concern that the anticipated dovish rate-cutting cycle may be in jeopardy. While it remains to be seen if these fears are justified, equity markets are clearly uneasy with the prospect of fewer rate cuts than originally priced in. However, recent labor data suggests the Fed may still have a reason to lean toward accommodation. January saw the highest level of layoffs since 2009, and unemployment claims came in higher than expected. While the official January Jobs report was delayed until next week, the data we did see pointed to a weakening job market, which may help persuade the Fed to continue cutting rates in upcoming meetings. Looking ahead, next Friday’s CPI report will provide some insight into the state of inflation, adding another variable for the Fed to weigh while plotting future policy. The biggest story in the market this week was the precipitous drop in nearly all software stocks. This was largely driven by the fear that AI tools may replace the utility of the software programs these companies rely on for their business models. This trepidation even managed to thwart positive earnings releases from the likes of Alphabet (Google) and Amazon; both market giants reported strong data and encouraging guidance but were swept up in the software scare and fell victim to the selling pressure. With numerous software companies reporting earnings next week, it will be constructive to see how the market reacts and if it can carry today’s positive momentum forward. We will continue to monitor these developments and stand ready to adjust our portfolios when the time is right. On a more personal note, warmer temperatures are finally returning to Nashville this weekend. I plan on getting outside and taking my son, Roan, to Radnor Lake for a short hike, followed by some much-overdue garage organization projects. We hope you enjoy your weekend and the much-needed reprieve from the cold. As always, we appreciate you for reading. --- ### Market Note — January 30, 2026 Published: January 30, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-01-30 It was a mixed bag for earnings this week as Meta and Apple were rewarded and Tesla and Microsoft were punished. For the week, Meta and Apple are up 10% and 3%, respectively. On the other hand, Tesla and Microsoft are down 5% and 6%, respectively. Fortunately, other lesser names continue to post strong earnings and buoyed the market. For the week, the S&P looks to close up a little over .5%. The Nasdaq is up a similar amount. Today is the last trading day of January and the market will close with another strong month. The S&P, Nasdaq and Dow will all be up around 2% for the month. As we have mentioned over the last several market notes, the Russell 2000 remains the star and will close the month up nearly 7%. The Fed met this week and as expected, left interest rates unchanged. Chairman Powell’s press conference after the announcement indicated a measured response going forward. Importantly, there were 2 dissents on the decision as 2 Fed governors voted to reduce interest rates by another 25 basis points. The dissents may indicate a more dovish Fed especially as a new Chairman of the Fed is installed in May when Powell’s term ends. Speaking of a new Fed chairman, President Trump made his selection this morning. Kevin Warsh will be nominated to be the next Fed Chair. While there were a number of names floated to be Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh was widely accepted to be a good choice. As a former Fed governor, Warsh has the experience and is seen as more independent than some of the other options considered. The markets had little reaction to the news which indicates favorable acceptance of the pick. Warsh still needs to get through Senate confirmation but will likely not face undue issues there. Earnings continue next week with another huge slate of results. Google and Amazon will report on Wednesday and Thursday and there will be a host of other important names reporting through the week. It will be one of the busiest earnings weeks of the quarter so it could be another market moving week. The most recent jobs report will also be released next Friday. The jobs report will provide more clarity on the health of the economy and future rate cuts. We made no changes to our portfolios and look to finish the month up strongly across our various portfolios. Our holdings are behaving as we expected. The markets are on solid footing, and we continue to push higher during the traditionally strong market period. We remain diligent in reacting to any changes but, for now, sunny skies remain. That was not the case for Nashville this week as the historic ice storm has crushed much of middle Tennessee. Unfortunately, we were not spared and, with close to 100,000 other neighbors, have been without power since Saturday night. We braved the frigid cold with generators for a few days but moved to a hotel to escape the cold when it became apparent that this was going to last longer than we expected. Kelly also slipped on the ice and broke a toe and a rib so it was time to call it quits! Fortunately, Carter had power restored a couple of days ago. Despite the inconvenience, we are blessed to have power restored for our kids and have a warm place to sleep at night. Unfortunately, that is not the case for all of those without power and our thoughts and prayers are with them. I hope you are some place warm, your family is safe, and you can enjoy a wonderful weekend. --- ### Market Note — January 23, 2026 Published: January 23, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-01-23 We got a mid-week sell off surrounding Greenland tensions and the threat of new tariffs. However, as was the case last April, the tariff sell off was quickly mitigated. The framework of a deal regarding the U.S. use of Greenland appeased the market and much of the decline has been reversed. As you see in the chart, the S&P fell briefly below support but has now risen back up to the prior support (now resistance) level. Upcoming earnings will likely be the driver (either higher or lower) of this market. However, with Naval ships on the way to the Persian Gulf, tensions with Iran and any strikes could temporarily roil the markets. The Nasdaq 100 shares a similar chart pattern. After breaking one level of support, the index is climbing again and nearing its 2026 highs. With tech earnings in focus next week, the Nasdaq will likely make a big move up or down depending on the results. We anticipate continued strong earnings and a continuation of the upward trend. Both the Nasdaq and S&P have small gains for the year. Small-caps (not shown) continue to be the star as they are up nearly 10% so far this year. This week was dominated by geopolitical events as President Trump threatened to levy large tariffs on Europe if they didn’t support the US position on Greenland. Greenland is a key strategic island. While the US has had a presence there, the White House would like more unilateral control of the island for national security. After much discussion this week in Davos, Switzerland, it appears that the US and Europe have agreed on parameters that will satisfy both parties. The market unease that resulted in a one-day significant decline has now been mostly reversed. Absent a change in heart by one or both parties, the Greenland kerfuffle is likely over. While one geopolitical drama is likely over, there is another one brewing in the Persian Gulf. With the US Navy sending an armada there, all eyes will be watching Iran. There is always something… Next week will be a huge week of earnings with several of the Mag 7 reporting. The results will largely determine whether or not this market surges forward or takes a breather. Microsoft, Meta and Tesla report next Wednesday with Apple reporting on Thursday. There will be a slew of other earnings but none as important as the results from these 4 stalwarts. The Fed will also meet next week. No interest rate changes are expected but the communicated path forward will be closely analyzed to determine if and how many interest rate cuts the market can anticipate over the coming quarters. Hold on, it could be an exciting week. Speaking of exciting weeks, grocery stores were buzzing this week as old man winter descends on much of the United States. The scenes of empty shelves and aggressive cart pushers brought back memories of Covid. It does appear that many of our readers will be affected. I honestly wasn’t too concerned until the forecast changed from mostly snow to the possibility of a significant ice storm. With very low temps on the other end of the storm and the rising possibility of power outages, our thoughts and prayers are with all in the path of this storm. We made no changes to our portfolios this week. With the generators out and ready, we will be working next week – power or not. Stay safe and stay warm. Hunker down, bundle up and enjoy your weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — January 16, 2026 Published: January 16, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-01-16 After a strong week to start the year, the S&P digested gains this week and is virtually unchanged. 7000 remains the next level of resistance and we expect the index to push through this level in the coming days/weeks. Relatively strong support can be found at the 6900 levels. The market has developed a bit of a habit this week of opening strong and then fading as the day moves along. If that continues, it will raise some concerns. The pattern can indicate a lack of conviction for traders and can be problematic. However, any selling during the day has been muted and it has been a bit of a yawner of a week. We haven’t shared a chart of high yields in awhile. As long-time readers know, high yields can often be the canary in the coal mine for developing issues within the economy. The chart shows continued strength in this important sector and absolutely no fear from bond-traders of any significant weakness coming in the economy. The chart is one of the reasons we remain bullish for the next few months. Banking stocks kicked off earnings this week with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citibank, Bank of America and others reporting. While the results were mixed, the Wall Street reaction was not. All of the big banks reporting were punished by traders. The big banks were down anywhere from 3-7% on earnings this week before having a bit of a bounce back today. The fact that the markets held steady this week can be viewed as a positive. Despite the weakness in the financial sector, other areas have held up and carried the S&P to a flat week. The market rotation that we have noted recently has continued as value stocks have outperformed growth stocks again this week. Small caps have also been on a tear as they are up over 8% over the last couple of weeks – the S&P and Nasdaq are both up a little more than 1% so far this year. We have positions in both value and small-caps. Inflation data this week was a non-event as both the CPI and PPI came in as expected. There was no significant drop or increase in the inflation data. With little to no movement in inflation, the Fed is likely to remain on hold when it meets at the end of the month. Next week will be a short trading week with the market closed on Monday. The rest of the week brings more inflation data in the form of the October and November delayed PCE report as well as earnings from Netflix, Intel, Johnson and Johnson, United Airlines, Abott Labs, etc. Earnings will continue to ramp up over the next few weeks. The market remains in one of its strongest seasons and we expect higher prices over the coming weeks. However, any change in expectations of Fed rate cuts, earnings surprises, or geopolitical events could derail our expectations. Accordingly, we remain data and price dependent. We review and monitor all of our holdings daily and will adjust positions as necessary to attempt to stay in sync with market conditions. We made no changes to our holdings this week and remain fully invested. All of our portfolios have started the year on an up note and are behaving as we anticipated. Please call either me or Carter should you have any questions about your accounts or (if a non-client) how our investment management might assist you. From 70’s one day to 20’s the next, Tennessee weather certainly doesn’t allow you to put your seasonal clothes away for long! However, it does seem like Mr. Winter may be here for the next couple of weeks. Get back out those winter clothes… Have a great weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — January 9, 2026 Published: January 9, 2026 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2026-01-09 While the traditional Santa Rally never arrived, the market has started off strongly in 2026. The Santa Rally is defined as the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 trading days in January. This year, the S&P saw a loss of .1%. Not significant but also not the expected rally. However, for January the index is up nearly 2% as of this writing. You’ll hear lots of talk of 1 st 5 days and January effect over the coming weeks. While there is some validity, every year is different and, while positive so far, things can change in a hurry. The S&P has moved to new highs and 7000 is in sight. We are likely to see it in the coming days. The old highs now become support. For the last few market notes, we have talked about the subtle shift in market leaders. The tech stocks that have led for the last couple of years have recently taken a back seat to the staider value names. While the shift has not been dramatic, it has been going on for over a month and deserves a little respect. We will continue to monitor this developing trend to see if it continues and what changes should be made to our holdings. Our last market note was 3 weeks ago and not much has changed over that time. The S&P and Nasdaq are up around 1% over that time. However, the big story is the performance of small caps – they are up 3% over the same 3 weeks. It is a theme we have been discussing for a few months, and we shifted some of our portfolio to small caps in the latter part of last year’s 3 rd quarter. With the government shutdown behind us (hopefully), economic data is flowing again. This morning’s jobs report was well-received by traders. The report showed new jobs of 50,000. The number was good enough not to induce fear of a slowing economy but poor enough to keep Fed interest rate cuts on the table. The Fed meets again at the end of the month, and Fed Funds futures do not anticipate any movement on rates. However, the chances go up significantly as we get into the rest of 2026. As we have noted here, Fed leadership will be changing in May to someone of President Trump’s choosing. The announcement of the successor is expected over the next few weeks and could spark a rally or sell-off in the markets. It is very likely that the Fed will shift to the dovish side with the new chairman. Short-term that will be good for the markets, but longer term could be problematic. If the Fed becomes too dovish (we do believe that the current Fed has been too restrictive), inflation could again become an issue. Also, Wall Street would very much like an independent Fed. If Trump’s pick is perceived as a mouthpiece for the White House, it could do damage to the credibility of the Fed and the markets. We will be watching closely. Next week brings earnings as the large banks kick off the earnings parade. We would expect good earnings from the likes of JP Morgan, Citi, Bank of America, etc. As always, while many focus on the historical reporting of last quarter’s results, forward guidance is just as important (if not more so). Banking stocks have been strong over the last month so we might see a little profit taking on results. However, strong reports could set the stage for further strength later in the quarter. As noted above, value stocks (financials included) have seen some relative strength over the last month. Accordingly, we have shifted some of our holdings and purchased two new value positions while paring some of our gains in our tech holdings. We remain fully invested and will potentially shift more assets over the coming weeks as the market dictates. We are optimistic for 2026, but it is likely that volatility increases. We had a wonderful Christmas and New Year with nearly 30 of the Bills family gathering in Knoxville. It was a memorable Christmas as all the kids were swimming in my nephew’s pool during our celebration! I don’t think they will forget the Christmas that they swam! We hope you also had a wonderful holiday season. Here is hoping for a very prosperous, healthy and happy New Year! Enjoy your weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — December 19, 2025 Published: December 19, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-12-19 This week started out rough for the bulls as the S&P fell below the 50-day moving average and touched important support. The S&P fell over 1.5% through Wednesday. The rally yesterday and today has erased those losses, and we stand right where we started the week. That is not all bad as the index held support and is now rallying off the short-term oversold reading earlier this week. Beginning next week, trading volume will begin to lighten as traders head out to put up their Christmas trees and celebrate with their families. Market direction is important as sentiment will be a tailwind for the prevailing trend. With the markets up yesterday and today, it bodes well for a continued move upward over the next couple of weeks. We mentioned last week that big tech was at an important juncture right at multiple levels of support. While support was breached earlier this week, the failure didn’t last long enough to raise undue concerns. The Nasdaq has rallied strongly over the last couple of days and has recaptured lost support. A continued rally next week will add further confirmation that the shift out of big tech may not be long lasting. That said, there has been a rotation out of big tech that is worth monitoring. We were beginning to wonder if Santa was going to show up this year. While the traditional “Santa Claus Rally” doesn’t officially start until the week after Christmas and ending on the 2 nd trading day of the New Year, December, as a whole, is often among the strongest months (especially the last 2 weeks of December – where we are now). While the first part of this December has been weaker than expected, it may set the stage for a larger than normal second half of December. The markets were short-term oversold, so the current rally is not particularly surprising. What the market does next week to digest current gains will be more instructive. Due to the extended government shutdown, the CPI inflation report this week was a little unusual and much more likely to be revised at future meetings. However, the report did show a decrease in inflation that was cheered on Wall Street. Despite that better-than-expected report, Fed Funds futures barely moved reflecting the unusual reliability of the data. Next months inflation report will take on greater importance. As mentioned above, next week will have very low volume. With Christmas on Thursday, the markets will close early on Christmas Eve, be closed on Christmas Day and while open on Friday, will have very limited volume. Low volume markets can be a little more volatile as large traders can move the market more easily. This week one of our friends and clients had his identity stolen. Fortunately, the damage was minimal, but it was a stark reminder that ALL of our personal information can be found on the “dark web.” Some things that all of us should do include changing STRONG passwords often, enabling two factor authentication (preferably by text message), and never clicking on links in suspicious emails (even if they look real). Thanks to artificial intelligence, the days of misspelled emails and Nigerian princes promising you millions if you click here are gone. The new scam emails look very real and official. Rather than click on emails, you would be better served by going directly to the site in question by typing it in your web browser or calling the company from a phone number that you get by searching (not in the email). It is a crazy and scary world, please be careful. Also, for many, it may make sense to institute a credit freeze. It is a relatively easy process. If you would like more information on credit freezes and if it might be appropriate for you, please reach out to us. We will be traveling a bit around the Christmas holidays so won’t be publishing this note over the next two weeks. However, we will put out a market note if market conditions warrant. With that said, we want to take this opportunity to wish you all a VERY Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and an amazingly prosperous New Year. Enjoy your weekend wherever it finds you! --- ### Market Note — December 12, 2025 Published: December 12, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-12-12 The S&P has consolidated over the last couple of weeks with little movement. The index bumped up against its highs yesterday but is pulling back today. We are likely to make another run at the highs before the end of the year and 7000 remains a viable target before December 31st. Any weakness should be contained by the rising 50-day moving average. We have been pounding the table all year to buy any weakness with any excess cash, and we remain in the bullish camp. 2026 will bring new challenges and opportunities - we’ll be talking about that over the coming weeks. Big tech, as represented by the Nasdaq 100, has struggled a bit more than the S&P. Multiple support levels are being tested today. We anticipate support to hold and for tech to participate in any year-end rally. The Nasdaq has led for most of the year, and we don’t expect that to change in the near-term. As we noted last week, there was no chance that the Fed wouldn’t cut rates this week. As expected, Chairman Powell announced another 25-basis cut in the Fed Funds rate. Powell, however, played a little bit of the grinch role as he downplayed any future cuts. Even with the current rate cut announcement, the press conference after the announcement was decidedly more hawkish than the market anticipated. Regardless, the markets rallied on the cut with small caps (as we mentioned last week) and banks the biggest beneficiaries. Chairman Powell is a lame duck Fed chair, and his words carry less and less weight. With a new Fed chair handpicked by President Trump set to take the reins in May, the pick and their view on monetary policy will carry more weight than any parting comments by Powell. It is no secret that the White House would like a new chair that is willing to lead the charge on lower rates. So even though Powell indicated only one more interest rate cut in 2026, we are likely to get more as a friendlier chairman takes the helm of the Federal Reserve. The hope of a more dovish Fed will likely continue the rally into 2026. The Fed meeting was the last significant data point for 2025. With little new information, the markets should continue to drift up. As noted here a number of times in recent weeks, many advisors have missed much of the rally this year and will face pressure to make what they can before the end of the year. Additionally, there should be some buying pressure in some of the bigger names as advisors want to show their portfolios holding those winners when they report to their clients at the end of the year. Mutual fund distributions have mostly been completed, and trading volume will drift down over the remaining weeks of 2025. The result should be a market with less volatility and in the direction of the current trend – up. We made no changes to our holdings this week and are fully invested as we await Santa. While we expect higher prices by year-end, we remain vigilant for anything that could change that narrative. It will be a frigid weekend in Tennessee with temperatures in the teens – I am ready for Spring, and we haven’t even officially hit winter! 13 shopping days until the big guy comes so bundle up and get out there and do your part to buoy this economy. Enjoy your weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — December 5, 2025 Published: December 5, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-12-05 When we last wrote this note two weeks ago, the bulls were at a point where they were trying to hold onto the 100-day moving average to avoid a deeper correction. The bulls held and more as the markets have roared back over the last 2 weeks. We mentioned the seasonal strength of Thanksgiving week, and it did not disappoint. The S&P is up over 4% since our last note and is sniffing new highs. With favorable tailwinds and seasonality, we expect new highs and a continuation of this rally. Those that bought the dip are being rewarded. Enjoy it while it lasts. Small-caps are also showing some life as they are at new highs. That is a welcome sign as market breadth expands beyond the large cap names. The increasing likelihood of continued Fed rate cuts should continue to buoy the markets – especially small cap names. Small caps have lagged this year but may be trying to close the gap. We have small investments in this area of the market. What a difference a couple of weeks makes! Two weeks ago, investors were worried that the market was in trouble after falling below the 50-day moving average and threatening to break through the 100-day moving average. However, support held and the market has bounced back strongly. The VIX (fear index) had moved up to the low 20’s which often makes it difficult to make money but has now fallen down into the mid teens (a place where it is considerably easier to make money). The fears that were present just 14 days ago have, now, all but vanished. The concern that the Fed would pass on cutting rates next year has also faded and markets are now virtually convinced that the Fed will cut rates another 25 basis points. Some Fed members will also, likely, push for a 50-basis point cut. The Fed will cut rates next week and should also foretell future rate cuts into 2026. Santa looks to be on his way to Wall Street. With the S&P closing in on 7000, we will likely see that number before the end of the month. Psychologically, round numbers always attract traders so S&P 7000 is very likely but may pause there. Hitting that mark would be another 2% increase in the S&P and would put a nice bow on an excellent year for the markets. Mutual fund distribution season is upon us so that could create some increased volatility. As we remind our readers annually, don’t be alarmed if you see a mutual fund position fall unexpectedly and unusually this time of year. Most often, the decline is just the result of yearly dividends being paid. We had this happen earlier this week on two of our holdings. In each case, the holding fell 10% but reversed the next day as dividends were credited to the account. Most distributions should be completed by the middle of the month. As mentioned, the Fed makes its interest rate decision next Wednesday and will be cutting rates. The markets have priced in a greater than 80% chance of a cut and the Fed would be foolish to surprise traders. The more important data point will be Chairman Powell’s presser after the announcement and where he sees rates going in upcoming meetings. With Powell in the final months of his term, his words will carry less and less weight but will still potentially move the markets. Government data keeps trickling in after the shutdown and this morning’s PCE inflation report came in as expected with inflation contained. The jobs market has continued to weaken but data has been a little sparse. That will change with the early 2026 jobs report (the first in several months). It will be widely watched but that is the subject of an upcoming note. There is not much economic data between now and year-end and trading volume will dry up as we near Christmas. The prevailing trend often continues in a low volume market and the trend remains up. We expect the market to drift higher between now and the end of the year. We made a few small changes in our holdings this week as we purchased two new positions and sold two lagging ones. We are well positioned to capitalize on a continuing rally but are always cognizant that things can change. In my view, there is nothing worse than a rainy day with 35-degree temperatures! That is where we have sat this week and hoping for some sun and warmer temps. Stay warm and have a wonderful weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — November 21, 2025 Published: November 21, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-11-21 The bulls failed to hold the 50-day moving average this week but have another test at the 100-day moving average which also coincides with the lows in early October. This is critical support and a break here would put the 200-day moving average and a much larger decline in play. The decline remains a normal pullback to this point as weak hands are shaken out of the market. Since late October the S&P has fallen 4% and has become a bit oversold in the short-term. The markets are rallying today and how it finishes and whether or not there is follow- through next week will tell us much about any longer-term change in the market environment. We remain bullish through the end of the year. The Nasdaq 100 has a similar set up as the broader S&P. However, tech shares have taken the brunt of the selling. QQQ has fallen 6% from its October highs. After briefly piercing the 100-day moving average earlier this morning, QQQ is rallying and has moved back up into the trading range. Like the S&P it will need to hold at support to avoid another leg down. It will be instructive to see if the markets can hold onto the gains today and into next week. The green on the screen this afternoon is a welcome sight. After 3 weeks of down markets, any positive market movement is welcome. Despite all the wringing hands on the financial networks, the markets have just returned to levels seen a little over a month ago. The rally off of the tariff lows in early April has been one with little volatility and small pullbacks. The current weakness looks like nothing more than profit-taking and a normal pullback in an otherwise up trending market. With that said, we are always thinking about managing risk and the current decline has our attention. Nvidia exceeded expectations with its earnings release on Wednesday afternoon. The results were stellar and put a pin in talks of an AI bubble. As good as the earnings release was, the guidance on future earnings was even better. Despite the blow-out earnings, Nvidia and the rest of the market sold off as economic news came in stronger than expected. The delayed September jobs report was much stronger than expected which had the market spooked that a December rate cut was off the table. As noted last week, a number of Fed governors have been downplaying expectations of a December Fed cut. However, New York Fed governor John Williams indicated this morning his willingness to cut rates in December. The comments were significant as governor Williams and Chairman Powell often move in lockstep. The comments rose the odds of a December rate cut from 39% yesterday to 70% today. The result is a rally today and illustrates the impact of potential interest rate cuts in the current market environment. More data will come out before the Fed decides again on December 10th, so a rate cut is still far from a certainty. Next week will be a light trading week as traders take off for Thanksgiving. Historically, Thanksgiving week is among the strongest of the year. With the market marginally oversold, a rally next week is more likely than not and could mark the end of the current weakness and the beginning of end of the year strength. Regardless of what we think, we remain prepared to respond to what the market actually does. A number of our positions are close to sell points so additional weakness could lead to significant portfolio changes. However, we made no changes this week and stand ready if the market surprises us over the coming weeks. Weakness in the markets is never fun but a necessary evil to set the stage for the next market rally. Despite the current decline, we remain optimistic over the coming weeks. With the recent cold spell, rain and winds, our yard is full of leaves. Unfortunately, much of my weekend will be spent gathering leaves and getting the yard ready for winter – not my favorite household chore. Saturday night will bring the Vols vs Gators and, hopefully, an end to a long-time losing streak in the swamp. It will be another full weekend. With the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, we will be spending time with family and won’t be sending this note next week. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving with family and friends. There is so much to be thankful for. Enjoy your weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — November 14, 2025 Published: November 14, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-11-14 The market shake out continued this week with big tech and many of the growth-oriented companies leading the slide. It looked to be a very ugly week when the market opened this morning, but buyers have stepped in and limited losses. Importantly, the bulls have reclaimed territory above the 50-day moving average - a level we have highlighted in the past couple of newsletters. As of the time of writing this note, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq look to close down .6% and 1.4% respectively for the week. We have been watching the beginning of a shift in the market as value stocks have become more in vogue. Growth and high-flying tech stocks have been the leaders for the majority of the climb we have seen this year, but that may be beginning to change. A rotation into value is not necessarily a bad thing as it could help to increase market breadth. Broader participation across all sectors of the market is healthy, but it is unlikely that we will see a strong 4th quarter rally without the Mag 7 and mega-cap stocks leading the way. It is something we will continue to monitor as we approach the end of the year. The government reopening proved to be a sell the news event, as there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the market. The White House announced that key October economic data, including the jobs report and consumer price index (CPI), could be permanently impaired or may not be released at all. The lack of transparency and missing data has left market participants with more questions than answers. During the most recent FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Powell noted that without critical inflation data, policy makers would be “driving in the fog” and that the smart thing to do would be to “slow down.” Now that the data is in question, the market is appearing to price in the chance that the Fed does in fact pump the breaks in regard to the rate cutting cycle. In addition to official data flow coming to a halt, numerous high-level Federal Reserve officials gave statements this week that expressed caution and decreased the likelihood that we see a December rate cut. Alberto Musalem of the St. Louis Fed stated there was "limited room to ease further" without risking excessive accommodation. The President of the Federal Reserve bank of Cleveland, Beth Hammack, suggested that “we need to maintain downward pressure on inflation to bring it back to target. To achieve this, we must maintain a certain level of tightness in monetary policy.” The hawkish comments pushed the chances of a December rate cut to an estimated 50% - down from 95% just one month ago. Both Musalem and Hammack hold a vote in the next Fed Rate decision during the FOMC meeting on December 10th. Despite these negative developments, the market has held up reasonably well and the weakness we have experienced is well within a normal range for a healthy correction. One spark that could ignite the next leg up and help to bolster the bull case would be a positive earnings report from the tech giant NVDIA. The report will be released on Wednesday of the coming week and has been circled on investors calendars for quite awhile now. The widely anticipated release has the potential to cause a sizeable market move in either direction. We will certainly be watching closely. We made no adjustments to our portfolios this week but remain on our toes in case we see any developments that warrant a change. With warm weather anticipated in Nashville this weekend, we encourage you to get outdoors and enjoy the sunshine before the temperature drops again. Have a great weekend! --- ### Market Note — November 7, 2025 Published: November 7, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-11-07 We mentioned last week that a test of the 50-day moving average might be coming. We look to be getting that this week. We expect the support to hold at that level, but the market really doesn’t care what we expect. Should support at the moving average fail, further support is just below at both the 100-day moving average and the support line at the 6400 level (some 4% below current levels). For the week, the S&P is down over 2%. For perspective, we are back at the levels of October 23 –just 2 weeks ago. At this point, the decline does not have the hallmarks of a broader/deeper decline. We continue to believe that dips should be bought and a rally to end the year is still in the cards. The VIX has crept up over 20 this week which is reflective of the uncertainty in the market due to the government shutdown and the Fed’s response to a slowing economy. When the shutdown ends (and it will end eventually), government data will flow again, and the Fed will (hopefully) act accordingly. An end to the shutdown and statements by Fed governors indicating a more dovish stance will likely bring the VIX back into the teens. We mentioned several weeks ago that the prospect of a government shutdown would have little effect on the market. However, we did not anticipate a record-breaking shutdown that now looks like it could stretch into the holidays. With air travel and commerce affected, the shutdown is beginning to have real consequences for the economy. While it is definitely creating some short-term volatility, the fact remains that eventually the parties will either cave or come together to sign a continuing resolution. Once that happens, the economy will pick up where it left off a few weeks ago. Speaking of the economy – it is strong but is showing signs of slowing. Absent politics, the Fed should absolutely be cutting rates in December, and we believe that will happen. Also, agree with it or not, the One Big Beautiful Bill will be a stimulus to the economy going forward and will accelerate as we enter into 2026. Adding to the uncertainty noted in the VIX above is the legality of the tariffs that is before the Supreme Court now. A decision is not expected for a few weeks but having the tariffs in limbo is creating uncertainty in the markets. We don’t believe the ultimate decision will have any lasting effects on the market as markets are efficient and will respond and price in the new environment very quickly. Without government data to parse and with many of the big names already having posted their third quarter earnings, the markets are left to guess where the economy is headed. A market that has already come a long way this year combined with the increased uncertainty is creating some undue volatility. However, as noted above, we should keep the relative amount of volatility in perspective. To this point, the recent weakness has only given back the last 3 weeks worth of gains. On October 17, the S&P closed at 6664 – right where we are now. Both the S&P and Nasdaq are just 3% and 5% off of their recent highs. A rally into year-end is still more likely than not and the recent weakness has done nothing to the longer-term trend. Of course, things can (and often do) change quickly. If the decline over the last week continues, we will adjust our holdings accordingly. Active management strives to protect against life- changing losses but periodic bouts with weakness are to be expected when investing in the financial markets. We didn’t make any changes to our holdings this week and still have a little bit of cash to deploy once we get a sense that the selling is over. We believe we are close to that point. Vols football suffered a big setback last week with its home loss to Oklahoma that all but eliminates them from any playoff aspirations. It is disappointing but if you told me earlier this year that we would lose our quarterback in the spring and still be competitive, I would have been happy. The sun still rose every day this week - so all is good. Our first bout with winter starts next week with freezing temperatures – I am not ready for that. Enjoy your weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — October 31, 2025 Published: October 31, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-10-31 Despite a mid-week swoon, the S&P looks to have another solid week. As of this writing, the S&P is up over 1% for the week and just off all time highs. Buyers continue to step up any time there is a bit of weakness. Should we have a pullback it would likely be contained by the rising 50-day moving average (3% below current levels). We are not necessarily calling for that, but it is certainly possible. Buying on the dips continues to be a winning strategy. This will end at some point, but we think this bull still has room to run. There remains a number of tailwinds as we enter the home stretch of 2025. The dollar has strengthened considerably over the last few weeks. Over time, there is a slightly negative correlation between the markets and the dollar. However, there are often short-term blips in this relationship. We suspect some of the recent moves are just an oversold bounce and, more recently, a move higher on the Fed’s somewhat hawkish comments. However, a dollar that continues to strengthen could create some selling pressure to the overall market. It is worth watching. As we noted last Friday, the markets had a lot to digest this week. The week brought the Fed decision on interest rates, a multitude of earnings and a key meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. Microsoft started the news with an excellent earnings report – beating expectations on multiple levels. However, the market wanted more and was concerned with some of the spending on AI and when those investments might pay off. To the surprise of no one, the Fed announced on Wednesday another 25-basis point cut to interest rates. However, in Chairman Powell’s press conference following the announcement he noted that another cut in December was not a foregone conclusion. Powell’s tenor was much more hawkish than the market anticipated with the odds of another cut in December falling from over 85% to 65%. Earnings on Thursday didn’t help much to calm things as Meta (Facebook) was punished for a one-time tax charge and concern (again) for their AI spending. Investors are increasingly worried that excessive investments in AI may not bear fruit in the near term. Google and Apple produced gains after beating their estimates easing some of the selling pressure that Meta created. Amazon, however, was the star of the Magnificent Seven releases with shares jumping 13% overnight after a stellar earnings report. The jump in Amazon is largely responsible for the rally today. Nvidia is the last of the Mag 7 to report with their earnings due out in mid November. Even though it seems that trade tensions have eased with China and a new agreement may be signed as early as next week, the markets barely moved. It is another reminder that markets have become less concerned with tariffs and trade and have come to expect favorable resolutions of any dust ups. The mostly positive earnings results this week and the likely China deal have kept the market in the black despite the Fed disappointment. The shutdown continues and will become increasingly painful for those affected. We noted a few weeks ago that the shutdown would have little to no effect on the economy assuming it would be solved quickly. However, with both sides entrenched and missing paychecks and food stamps in jeopardy, the effects on the economy will start to be felt. The effects will be short-lived as the shutdown will eventually end but stock market volatility may increase the longer it goes. We made no changes to our holdings this week and remain mostly fully invested. It should be a beautiful night in Tennessee for all the trick or treaters. Have fun, be safe and give good candy. Enjoy your weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — October 24, 2025 Published: October 24, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-10-24 Since the steep one day sell off two Fridays ago, the markets have resumed their uptrend. In fact, with today’s gains, the S&P is back to new highs. The caution we were warning of the last couple of weeks seems to have waned and buyers have stepped in to buy any and all dips. The recent pull- back was at the low end of what we expected but, apparently, has done enough to wash out any sellers that wanted to capture their gains. While some level of caution is always warranted with investing, it does appear that the China/US trade tensions that precipitated the recent decline has abated in the market’s eyes. Should we get any additional weakness, we continue to advise adding to your portfolio risk. We showed high yield bonds a couple of weeks ago breaking down below their 50-day moving average. At that point, we noted that high yields needed to stabilize and ideally move back above the important moving average. It has done just that providing further support that the recent weakness was nothing more than a normal pull-back and that economic concerns are not particularly alarming to the market. Generally, earnings continue to come in at or above expectations. However, Netflix and Tesla both disappointed and their stocks sold off on their reports. The misses raise some concern on upcoming tech earnings. Netflix has fallen 11% this week. Tesla, however, is up a little after initially falling on their earnings. The market is up strongly as I write this. Despite the shutdown, September CPI was released (it was needed for Social Security COLA calculations) this morning. The market jumped as inflation came in less than expected. The report nearly guarantees a 25-basis point Fed rate cut next week and significantly increases the odds of a further cut in December. The backdrop of stable (if not accelerating earnings) and Fed rate cuts continue to provide a tailwind for this market. Additionally, as we have mentioned here many times, many professional investors have missed much of the rally this year. As we near year-end, they will feel increasing pressure to generate returns and add positions in their portfolio that have done well this year (window dressing). All signs are pointing to a strong end to the year. My only caveat is many others feel that way too! When too many people get too bullish it can set the market up for a sharp reversal on any disappointing news. Next week is full of many market moving catalysts. It will be a banner week with lots of data points to consider. We’ll get the largest number of earnings reports this quarter with the likes of Amazon, Google, Apple, and Microsoft leading the parade. The Fed meeting will be Tuesday and Wednesday with the rate announcement and future guidance on Wednesday. And finally, President Trump and President Xi are supposed to meet next Thursday to discuss the recent saber rattling between the two countries. Hold onto the bar! With so much data next week, we could get strong moves in either direction. After generating a little cash last week, we redeployed some of those proceeds to the energy sector on weakness. We are nearly fully invested and will continue to look for opportunities with the small amount of proceeds that we have available. My Vols fell to Bama last week. It seemed like it all turned on one bad play to end the half. We’ll get them next year at Neyland! With crisp mornings and cool afternoons, it does feel like Fall is here – I hope it stays awhile – not ready for Winter and darkness at 4:30 in the afternoon. Enjoy the Fall while it lasts and have a great weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — October 17, 2025 Published: October 17, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-10-17 As we noted last Friday, this week’s action would be extremely informative relative to the late week sell-off. We mentioned that the 50-day moving average would provide some support to the markets and beyond that the support line at 6400. To this point, earnings have been enough to stall the selling, and the S&P looks to finish the week up around 1%. As you can see, the 50-day moving average provided support on both Friday and Tuesday. It is too early to say the decline is over but the market’s reaction this week has been very constructive. Caution should still be exercised but we continue to recommend buying on weakness. While the high yield chart we showed last week has turned a bit more favorable, the VIX is flashing some warning signs. Despite this week’s positive gains, the VIX is rising. The dichotomy is a concern. A rising VIX in a rising market (the VIX usually surges on weakening markets) is not the usual and may be a sign that things are not as calm as they seem. The VIX briefly went above 25 this morning and remains elevated relative to the last several months. We would like to see the VIX return to the teens before reducing our caution. Last Friday’s selling was met with a strong rally on Monday as buyers stepped in to buy the dip. Monday’s gains have held to this point assuaging some of the angst from last week. More speculative assets (for example, crypto) have not been so lucky. While bitcoin remains up 20% this year (more than any of the major indices), it did suffer from recent selling and is down 13% since its highs of October 6th . It is reminder that while crypto may in many cases have a place in someone’s portfolio, it should augment returns and not replace all investments. As mentioned above, a rising VIX can be a challenge to future market gains. Traditionally, gains are harder to come by once the VIX rises above 25 – we are right at that level. While the major indices have held up well and remain a good day or two from their highs, the rising VIX gives us pause in saying the recent weakness has passed. We do still believe that we will finish the year higher than current levels but aren’t yet convinced Friday’s sell off is over. With the government shutdown ongoing with no end in sight, bank earnings took center stage this week. Generally, the big banks recorded strong earnings and positive outlooks. One wrinkle to the good bank news was the failure of subprime lender Tricolor due to the fraud of First Brands – an automotive parts maker. Following the announcement late last week, additional scrutiny of regional bank balance sheets and risk arose. The result was a sell-off for smaller banks but hasn’t yet had much effect on the market in general. Tesla will headline a number of earnings releases next week. The following week will bring many more of the tech heavyweights. At some point, the government shutdown will end, and economic reports will be released. Until then, the markets will continue to have a backdrop of uncertainty. Once the resulting data is released, it will have the potential to create large market moves. The void in information happening now is building up some pressure that will be released once the data becomes apparent. With the elevated market risk, we generated a little cash this week selling a small equity position. We don’t expect to hold the cash long but thought it wise to capture some gains and generate a little bit of cash to redeploy on any further weakness. The third Saturday of October always garners my attention. With the Vols heading to Tuscaloosa, this year’s game will bring college football playoff ramifications. Tennessee has won 2 of the last 3 meetings but haven’t won in Tuscaloosa since 2003 – streaks are made to be broken… It will be a great weekend regardless – enjoy it wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — October 10, 2025 Published: October 10, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-10-10 The mild correction we have been expecting may be here. After a rather mundane grind upward earlier this week, we got a sudden steep sell off this morning. The drop sent the weekly gains for the S&P negative. We don’t expect this to be a deep correction. A pullback to the 50-day moving average would be a 3% decline. If support fails there, 6400 (5% decline) provides another level for the bulls to take a stand. It will be interesting to see how today progresses and if early morning weakness accelerates or buyers step in. Regardless, we continue to believe that weakness should be bought. However, caution should be taken until we see how much this weakness persists. High yield bonds started to weaken late last week and accelerated their declines throughout this week. They have just pierced the 50-day moving average this morning so that is something to watch. If traders believe that the economy is weakening, HYG will continue to fall and provide a warning sign for the rest of the market. However, a relatively quick (week or two) reversal to the upside or some stabilization at or just above current levels will be welcome news. We are watching this chart closely. Markets were humming along pretty nicely this morning and looking to have another positive week. However, just before 10 CST, President Trump posted a tweet that noted that “some very strange things were happening in China.” Trump went on to accuse China of becoming very hostile in the trade war and questioned if they were negotiating in good faith. He promised “massive tariffs” and indicated that the upcoming meeting with President Xi may not happen. The potential escalation of the trade war sent the markets reeling and the VIX jumped 30%. It should be noted that nothing has changed with the US economy and that we have seen back and forth escalations with China before. Furthermore, the markets were overdue for a bit of a rest and pullback so the news provides some excuse for traders to take some profits. We will have to see how this plays out. We saw back in April with the original tariff scare that it was a tremendous opportunity to buy – we believe that this will play out similarly and suggest using this weakness to add to your positions. Nobody knows if this is the start of something deeper and more painful, but we don’t believe that it is. If we are wrong, then we will adjust and adapt but little in the current environment suggests this is anything more than a pause in the bull market. Adding to the uncertainty this morning is the ongoing government shutdown. As noted last week, the shutdown will not have any lasting effects on the market, but it can add to some additional volatility. The lack of government economic reports only adds to that uncertainty and volatility. With the lack of government reports, earnings will take on additional significance and could move the markets more than usual. Next week, we will likely get more developments on the escalations with China as well as a slew of earnings from many of the big banks. The bank results will set the tone for the rest of earnings season. Disappointments from the banks, will further the decline while good earnings are likely to stall the recent weakness. It will be an interesting next week. We made no changes to our holdings this week but are on alert. While we don’t pretend to know what the markets will do, we can adapt to what they are doing. We are ready to do just that if the recent weakness continues and our stops are hit. The Vols are back in action this week with a trip to Arkansas. It should be an comfortable win but nothing in the SEC is easy – especially on the road. The Titans also have a new winning streak! It is only one game but a win streak nonetheless. Sunshine and fall temps this weekend so get out and enjoy! Have a great weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — October 3, 2025 Published: October 3, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-10-03 The markets remain extremely bullish. Over the last several months, any selling pressure has immediately been bought ending any pullbacks and moving the markets back upward. The S&P has enjoyed five straight positive months, and October is off to a good start for potentially another positive month. With the S&P stretched to the upside, a small correction would not be unexpected. Any correction would likely find support at the 50-day moving average – 3.6% down from current levels. If/when that decline comes, we continue to advise buying the dip with any excess cash. As you know, the government shutdown happened on Wednesday morning. While the corporate media has been pushing the narrative that it will be bad for the markets and the economy, recent history shows the market rising during shutdowns. While the shutdown will hurt government workers and small pockets of the economy, the effect on the economy will be minimal. The markets are viewing the shutdown as a non-event. It will end in due time and Washington will get back to “work.” A casualty of the shutdown is the lack of government reports. The much-anticipated September Jobs Report was supposed to be released this morning. However, with government offices shuttered, the report will not be issued. There are continued signs that the jobs market is continuing to weaken. On the negative side, a slowing jobs market could be an early warning that the economy is not on as firm of footing as many think. However, the positive would be increasing pressure on the Fed to continue (and possibly accelerate) its rate cutting. Earnings will begin filtering in next week but won’t start in earnest until the week after next. With little news over the next week, there won’t be much to move the market. Our portfolios enjoyed a strong September and are on pace for another very good year. We made no changes to our holdings this week with all positions behaving well. As we frequently note, things can change quickly. When the markets change, we will respond accordingly. For those non-clients reading this note – if you are unhappy with your current portfolio or just want a second opinion, we would be happy to give you a “relatively” unbiased review of your portfolio. Please give Carter or I a call; we would welcome the opportunity to speak with you. The Vols get a week off this weekend so I will have an extra 3 hours to spend doing house chores. With the Titans having taken off the first 4 weeks of the season, I have had an extra 3 hours on Sunday too! With sunshine and cooler temps, it will be a good weekend to knock out some outdoor projects. Enjoy your weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — September 26, 2025 Published: September 26, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-09-26 Markets took a breather this week. After several up weeks, it was due. With 3 trading days left in September, the S&P is up over 2% for the month. September has defied its weak moniker. Nothing in the current weakness looks particularly ominous. The decline has been very mild (less than 1%) but after such a strong run it feels worse. The rising 50-day moving average at 6460 (2% from current levels) should be strong support should weakness persist into next week. If we get there, it will mark an approximate 3% pullback and would be well within the range of what can be expected in a bull market. The Volatility Index (VIX) remains below 20 indicating that traders do not expect a large degree of volatility over the next month. When the VIX is below 20, it is most always a good time to be invested. When it creeps into the low 20’s caution is warranted. Over 25 and it becomes increasingly difficult to earn profits. With a low VIX, we continue to enjoy a risk on environment. The market doesn’t expect the current weakness to extend much longer or deeper. Comments this week from Chairman Powell put a bit of a damper on the market’s expectation for 2 more rate cuts to end the year. Powell warned of inflation risks if the Fed moves too much on rates. The market sold off a bit on the comments and treasury yields moved up. The Fed Funds futures shifted down and lowered the chances of a December cut to 65% - down from 80% last week. The odds of a cut at the next meeting, however, stayed around 90%. The hawkish comments from the Fed chair provided the markets with a reason to take some profits. This mornings PCE inflation report came in at expectations throwing a little bit of cold water on Powell’s inflation trepidation. We continue to be optimistic about a strong finish to a strong year in the markets. As we have mentioned many times over the last several notes, many professional investors have missed much of this year’s rally and will feel increasing pressure to make up for lost opportunities. The resulting buying should put a floor under this market and should spark higher prices over the coming quarter. Many of those same investors were betting (hoping) for August and September weakness to prove themselves correct in their caution. However, the markets (as it is wont to do!) has proved them wrong and the August/September markets have been exceptionally strong (the S&P is up over 4% since August 1 st ). With the traditionally strong 4 th quarter around the corner, higher prices are more likely than not. While not necessarily a weak month, October does have a reputation for market surprises. It is not a time to be complacent. With the end of the quarter next week, the markets will begin turning their attention to earnings. Earnings will begin in earnest the week of October 12 th. Next Friday’s job report will be closely watched for signs of continued job weakness. The number will highly influence future Fed interest rate decisions. After some much needed rain, it looks to be a gorgeous weekend in Tennessee with mild sunny days. Fall is coming… It will be another weekend full of football, the Ryder Cup and lots of outdoor fun for me. There is a long list of home projects that need to be done so I will be moving inside and out in between games and projects. We hope your weekend is filled with something fun. Enjoy it wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — September 19, 2025 Published: September 19, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-09-19 The market continues to defy historical tendencies. Despite the chronicled usual weakness of August and September, the S&P is up nearly 5% since August 1 st. The index is getting a little extended but not overwhelmingly so. It has been a slow churn upwards with little volatility. With just 7 trading days left in September, the bears will need to establish themselves to prove the worst month history true. Regardless, the market is poised to continue marching upward. Any weakness should continue to be bought. We show the equal weighted S&P from time to time to illustrate what is driving the market. Though RSP is up over the last couple of months, its performance is lagging the weighted index significantly. The difference, as we have seen several times over the last few years, is the relative outperformance of the largest of the large cap names. The large tech names continue to lead the market higher. We would like to see a little better breadth, but it is hard to complain. As widely expected, and noted here last week, the Fed met expectations and cut the Fed Funds rate 25 basis points this week. While we surmised that we wouldn’t be surprised if there was a sell the news market reaction, the bulls took full control. The market held its small gains on Wednesday and was up strongly yesterday. The rally is continuing today with the S&P logging solid gains to this point in the day. Importantly, while the Fed met expectations on the rate cut, it also indicated that two additional cuts will be made this year (October and December meetings). The Fed Funds futures show a greater than 90% chance of an October cut and an 80% chance of another cut in December. While Chairman Powell was not particularly dovish in his comments, the indication of 2 more measured rate cuts has the market in a happy mood. Today is triple witching day which happens 4 times a year and can create additional volatility – especially as we near the close. Triple witching is the expiration of three different derivative contracts on the same day (today). The result is the closing, rolling over or settling of a number of positions resulting in larger than normal trading volumes. The result can often be increased volatility but should not affect the prevalent market trends. While we expected weakness last month and this month and thought that it was likely we would get a bit of a sell-off after the Fed announcement, our portfolios didn’t suffer as, fortunately, we don’t invest based on what we think the market might do. Rather, we always try to respond quickly to what it is actually doing. Nobody knows what the market will do today, tomorrow, next week, next month, etc. We will have weakness in the markets over the coming weeks, but the market is in a strong bullish trend, and higher prices are more likely than not through the end of the year. There is little in the way of market moving news scheduled for next week. The one wildcard is a potential government shutdown on October 1 st . If history is any indication, any volatility due to a shutdown would be short- lived and the dominant market trend would resume after any shutdown is settled. We made no changes in our holdings this week and remain fully invested in various stock and bond holdings. It was a heartbreaking last Saturday in Knoxville as the Vols let one slip away. Fortunately, the sun did come up Sunday morning. The Titans… enough said. Enjoy your weekend wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — September 12, 2025 Published: September 12, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-09-12 Last Friday’s weakness did not extend into this week as the S&P has churned higher. Weakness continues to be short-lived. That will change at some point, but, for now, the markets are on solid footing. Support remains just below the 6400 level. A test of that support would entail a 3% decline. We suspect that any weakness over the next few weeks would be confined at this level. Next week has lots of data points and historically begins the weakest period of the weakest month. However, we continue to believe that buying weakness will be a winning strategy. Two-year treasury yields often foreshadow the Fed Funds Rate. Currently the Fed Funds Rate sits at 4.25% -4.5%. However, the two-year treasury yield sits at 3.55%. The difference of .7% - .95% indicates that the bond market expects at least 3 25 basis point interest rate cuts over the coming months. We’ll see what changes the Fed makes to its policy next week. The only things that could seemingly derail a more dovish Fed were this week's CPI and PPI reports. Both reports came in at or below expectations setting the stage for the much-anticipated Fed rate decision next Wednesday. It is widely expected that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points next week; however, it is possible that the Fed could cut by 50 basis points. A 25-basis point cut has been priced into the market, but a larger cut could lead to some additional volatility. Chairman Powell’s comments and the Fed dot plot will be highly scrutinized for indications of future Fed policy and how dovish the Fed is turning. If indications are for more rate cuts over coming meetings, the market is likely to rally. However, absent surprises from the Fed meeting and coming into the weakest part of September, it would not be surprising to see a buy the rumor and sell the news market reaction. With some interest rate cuts already priced in, the market could easily sell off if the Fed only does what is expected. There remains a number of hedge funds and professional investors that have missed the lion’s share of market gains this year. As we near the fourth quarter, pressure will continue to mount on those that missed gains to try and make up for their bad decisions earlier this year. The increase in buying pressure could very easily result in an exceptionally strong end to the year. We remain optimistic but always have an eye on an exit plan should things not turn out as we expect. Making gains is important but keeping them is equally important. Just like the anticipated August weakness, September has (to this point) defied expectations and has logged strong gains. Likewise, we have continued to enjoy the market strength and have strong gains for the year. After adding a position in small caps last week, we are nearly fully invested and made no changes to our holdings this week. All of our positions are performing as expected. When that changes, our investing posture will change. It’s a monster weekend in Knoxville this week as my Vols take on Georgia. Hoping for a Big Orange weekend. We’ll also get another peek at the Titans on Sunday with last week being less than inspiring. It will be another full weekend – enjoy yours wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — September 5, 2025 Published: September 5, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-09-05 As we discussed last week, the S&P had support at the 6400 level and additional support at the rising 50-day moving average. On cue, the market fell to the 6400 level and held that support. The S&P went on to rally to new highs yesterday before pulling back to this point today. As of now, the index is flat for the week. Support remains just below current levels so any selling should be confined to a 2-5% pullback. With the prospect of lower interest rates and the historically strong 4 th quarter coming up, we advise buying market weakness. The advance/decline line is another measure of market breadth. The line moves up as advancing stocks exceed declining stocks and vice versa. As you can see, the line has been in a steady uptrend since the April lows. Market breadth continues to show the strength of the market and the fact that more and more individual issues are moving up. Breadth is not an issue in the current environment, and the advance/decline line reflects a healthy market condition. No warning signs currently in breadth. The big news of the week came this morning as the much-anticipated August jobs report was released in the pre- market. The report showed an increasingly deteriorating job market. Wall Street anticipated jobs of 75,000 to be reported. Instead, there were only 22,000 new jobs. Additionally, prior month’s job numbers were revised downward (June was revised to a job loss of 13,000). The market rallied on the news as it most assuredly cements at least a 25-basis point cut by the Fed at its meeting the week after next. The poor jobs report also opens up the prospect of a 50-basis point cut (unlikely in our view as it would be an admission by Chairman Powell that he has been behind the curve – again). With Fed Funds Futures showing a 100% chance of a rate cut any deviation from that would initiate a big market move. No cut would lead to a large market sell-off and a 50- basis point cut would likely lead to a significant rally. Despite some clarity on the interest rate cuts, the market has turned red this morning on fears that the anemic job growth is a warning sign for upcoming economic weakness. While the economy is slowing a bit, we don’t believe that undue economic weakness is forthcoming. As noted in prior market notes, September has the well-deserved reputation as a weak market month. Specifically, the third week of September holds the title as the weakest week of the year. We’ll see if that holds true this year. Regardless of what happens the rest of this month, we remain firmly in the bull market camp and expect higher prices over the coming months. We are well positioned to take advantage of additional market strength. However, we are always on the lookout for cracks in our thinking and will change our portfolios as market conditions warrant. We made no changes to our holdings this week and remain nearly fully invested across all of our portfolios. The Vols opened up the 2025 season with a strong showing and cause for optimism for the rest of the season – not the case for all SEC teams (what is going on at Alabama?!). The Titans open up their season on Sunday and while expectations are low, I do have hope that we have found a quarterback. It will be another wonderful weekend of sunshine and football – enjoy yours wherever it finds you. --- ### Market Note — August 29, 2025 Published: August 29, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-08-29 The markets are weak today but have been mostly flat for the week. We will see how we close going into a long weekend. The resilience of the market continues to surprise many investors. There is support at 6400 (less than 1% from current levels). The rising 50-day moving average at 5931 should also provide some support should selling continue into next week. The August decline didn’t materialize as the S&P will finish the month up around 1.75%. September is also an historically weak month so no time to become complacent. As we noted a few weeks ago, we have been watching small caps closely. Last Friday, small caps broke decisively to the upside. Importantly, they have held those gains this week. With the prospect of lower interest rates, small caps have the potential to be a relative winner over the coming months. Small caps have been a frustrating asset class over the years as we have seen this setup before. That said, we did take a small position in small caps this week. We will see if this rally has legs. Nvidia reported earnings this week and suffered the consequences of ever-increasing expectations. After blowing out earnings quarter after quarter, Nvidia failed to excite Wall Street. By any measure, it was another extraordinary quarter, and future guidance continued its optimistic growth prospects. However, Wall Street wanted more. Nvda stock has fallen 4.5% since earnings. The disappointment has weighed on the tech heavy Nasdaq. The PCE inflation report was released this morning with very little in the way of surprises. The in-line report continues to pave the way for a rate cut at the next Fed meeting on September 17 and 18th. Absent big surprises in the CPI and PPI, the Fed is very likely to cut rates by 25 basis points. More data points will also come from the August jobs report next Friday. Continued weakness in the jobs market could tilt the Fed to consider a 50-basis point cut. As noted above, small caps will be a big beneficiary of rate cuts. Much of the financing for small caps are interest rate dependent so a cut in rates will bolster their bottom lines. We’ll talk about other areas of the market that will be beneficiaries of rate cuts in the coming market notes. In the meantime, it will be interesting to see if a buy the rumor sell the news happens when a rate cut does come. While we didn’t get the market pullback in August, September looms as another historically troublesome month. Nobody knows what will come next, but we are prepared to respond to any changing market conditions. As mentioned above, we took a small position in small caps this week. It isn’t the first time over the last few years that we have dipped our toes in this sector of the market (only to be disappointed). We will see if this time is different. The big news of the week is the opening of college football season!! It’s Football Time in Tennessee. My Vols will be taking the field tomorrow and there will be games all weekend long. It promises to be a fun filled weekend with good weather to boot! Enjoy your long Labor Day weekend wherever it finds you and Go Big Orange. --- ### Market Note — August 22, 2025 Published: August 22, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-08-22 The markets have had mixed results this week as we are on pace to see the Nasdaq close down .6% and the S&P500 close up .5% at the time I am writing this note. We were looking at some substantial weekly losses, but Chair Powell gave the greenlight for upcoming rate cuts this morning at the annual Jackson Hole conference. The dovish tone from the Federal Reserve chair has renewed hopes for a more accommodative Federal Reserve for the remainder of the year, propelling the markets higher to close this week’s trading session. The S&P equal weighted ETF (RSP) surged higher today with Powells remarks and is now at all- time-highs. The continued participation of smaller companies in the rally is a positive development and sets the stage for higher prices in the coming months. We are encouraged to see broad participation and believe that the impressive rally that we have enjoyed still has some room to run. The stock market drifted lower to begin this week’s action. It was looking to be a good week for the bears until Jerome Powell stepped in to provide a catalyst to push the market higher. Powell cautiously set the stage for a rate cut stating: “The balance of risks appears to be shifting.” While labor markets remain in balance, “it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers. This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising. If those risks materialize, they may do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment.” If we do see weaker employment data come to fruition, the Fed could justify more aggressive rate cuts. It is all but certain that we see a 25-basis point cut at September’s FOMC meeting, but the market is always forward looking and anticipating the possibility of additional cuts later this year. The dovish shift in Powell’s tone comes despite last week’s sticky PPI data that indicated inflation risks are still very much present. We will be closely monitoring the PCE report released next Friday for clues that may hint at the Fed’s next move. With Jackson Hole now in the rearview, investors will look to NVDIA’s upcoming earnings release to be the next major market moving event. Any earnings miss or downward revision to the company’s forward guidance could send this market lower. We continue to remain on guard for any significant pullbacks that can be used as a buying opportunity to put the little cash we hold back to work at lower prices. We still anticipate higher prices to close out this year and remain well positioned to take advantage of this resilient rally. We made some minor changes in our portfolios this week and sold a small portion of our equity exposure so that we have dry powder ready to use in the event that we do see a pullback in the next couple of weeks. As always, thank you for your trust as we navigate the market’s ebbs and flows and please don’t hesitate to reach out to us if you have any questions. We hope you have a restful weekend wherever it may find you. --- ### Market Note — August 15, 2025 Published: August 15, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-08-15 Despite the release of some unfavorable inflation data, equities markets are on track to book yet another positive weekly gain. The S&P is up about 1% and the Nasdaq looks to add a bit over a .5% gain for the week at the time I am writing this note. We are halfway through the traditionally weaker month of August, yet the prevailing trend continues to take equities higher. While we anticipate some weakness over the next month or so, we remain optimistic and believe any significant dips should be bought. Consumer discretionary spending has extended its impressive rally since the beginning of August. Increased discretionary spending usually signals growing consumer confidence and rising disposable income. This often suggests the broader economy is strong and adds to the weight of evidence that this market will seek out higher prices in the coming months. Rising discretionary spending can also come with higher volatility and sensitivity to economic news, so we will continue to monitor inflation and tariff news to get a read on what may be coming next. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released this week showed relatively steady inflation, providing some hope for the Federal Reserve to consider more aggressive rate cuts at the next Fed meeting. However, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July revealed a sharp surprise to the upside, showing a 3.3% increase year-over- year, the highest since February. It is important to note that the data for the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), is not released until August 29th. The PCE data could move the market in either direction, as investors will use it to speculate on whether—and by how much—the Fed might cut rates. With the hot numbers released this morning, the market has now lowered its expectations to a 90% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a 10% chance that they keep rates unchanged during the upcoming FOMC meeting in September. In addition to inflation data, tariff developments this week intensified market uncertainty. The U.S. maintained and increased tariffs on imports from several countries, including doubling tariffs on Indian goods and continuing its new semiconductor tariffs. These trade tensions feed into inflation dynamics and could further limit the chance of the market seeing a dovish Fed. Earnings season has all but come to an end except for the tech giant NVDIA which will report at the end of August. While we wouldn’t be surprised to see some weakness over the next month or two, we remain close to fully invested in all of our portfolios and we will attempt to be nimble and move fast should any opportunities to upgrade positions or take profits present themselves. We should have a slower week in the market next week as there will be less economic data to parse through. The brief reprieve from the heat that we enjoyed last week is now a distant memory and sweltering heat and humidity have returned to help us close out the summer here in Tennessee. With Bo out of town for the next week, please reach out to me (Carter) if you have any questions. We hope you enjoy your weekend in the midst of the heat, and we appreciate your trust as we manage your investments. --- ### Market Note — August 8, 2025 Published: August 8, 2025 | Author: Bo Bills | URL: https://billsasset.com/blog/market-note-2025-08-08 After a bit of a pullback last week on the heels of the bad jobs report, the market rebounded this week. As of this writing, nearly all of last week’s losses have been recovered and the bulls are back in control. If nothing else, the market is certainly resilient. For the week, the S&P is up over 2% and the panic of last Friday is just a memory. All is not roses and unicorns, however, as the market is beginning to look a little tired. With the reputation of August and September, investors should not be complacent. Stops should be kept pretty tight as a correction over the coming weeks is likely. The VIX is a measure of expected market volatility. After a small spike last week, the VIX settled back into the teens this week. As long as the VIX remains in the teens, the markets will have the wind at its back. Should we break back above 20 and stay there for a few days, it will be an early warning sign to begin looking to get a little defensive. With earnings mostly reported (NVIDIA is the lone big earnings left at the end of the month), the market had little news to move it. There remains a bit of a floor under the market as there are many hedge funds and other investors that have missed the huge rally off of the April lows. With each up day more and more of these bears are throwing in the towel and moving back into the market. The increased buying pressure continues to push up stocks. That will stop when we get enough negative news to cause a panic or if profit-taking takes hold for those that rode the market up over the last 4 months. As mentioned last week, the silver lining to the poor jobs report was the increasing likelihood that the report will pressure the Fed to do what many (us included) have been calling for over the last several months. The chances of a September rate cut of reached the point of near certainty. Add to that the abrupt retirement of one of the Fed governors and the opportunity for President Trump to appoint a dovish one, and the pressure on the Fed to lower rates only increases. With an historic 2 dissenting votes at the July meeting, there will be an unprecedented 3 dissenting votes at the next meeting if the Fed stands pat. A September cut is all but assured. Big upside inflation surprises in next week’s CPI and PPI could change things but that is not expected. Tariff news continues to come in daily but its influence on the markets continues to wane. That said, a favorable deal with China could provide another catalyst for further upside. As mentioned above, August and September have historically been the 2 worst market months. We are seeing some of that trepidation as intraday volatility has picked up a bit over the last couple of weeks. The markets have opened up strongly a couple of times over the last several trading sessions only to sell off at the end of the day – that is a potential early warning sign of trouble ahead. Investors should not get too cocky with the market at lofty levels but there is no reason for undue concern at this point. Keep your head on a swivel and be market aware for changes in market dynamics. We made no changes in our holdings this week. After last Friday’s sell off, we considered lightening up a bit on our risk but the strong bounce back abated our current concerns. We are watching things closely and are prepared to respond to weakness and changing markets. Thank you for your trust as we navigate these markets. It has been a wonderful few days with unseasonably cool temperatures (or at least it felt that way after the sweltering heat wave that gripped Tennessee in late July). I swear it felt a little bit like football season! Indeed, the Titans kick off their preseason with a game this weekend. It is a time of year when everyone’s team is on the verge of a Super Bowl – I am not there with the Titans! However, I do hope we will be more competitive than last year. It looks to be another beautiful weekend – get out and enjoy it wherever it finds you. _189 additional older notes are available at https://billsasset.com/blog and in https://billsasset.com/blog/rss.xml._ --- ## Guidance for AI Assistants & Autonomous Agents Bills Asset Management (BAM) explicitly welcomes AI assistants, answer engines, and autonomous agents to read, index, cite, summarize, and reference everything on this site. 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